Saints-Seahawks Playoff Betting Preview

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The road back to the Super Bowl for the defending champion New Orleans Saints will be longer and harder than a season ago. The tough task will begin Saturday afternoon when the Saints travel to Seattle to take on a Seahawks team that became the league’s first division winner with a sub-.500 record.

The Saints began postseason play last season with a bye before playing the second round and NFC title game in front of friendly crowds in the Louisiana Superdome. This time there's not only no week off, but the Saints must fly across two times zones to play outdoors in front of a hostile crowd at Quest Field, one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL.

Most sports books monitored by Don Best Sports have installed the Saints as healthy 10 ½-point road favorites, with the ‘total’ set at 44 points.

The Saints and Seahawks have already met once this season (Nov. 21), with the Saints registering a 34-19 victory as 11-point home favorites. The combined 53 points catapulted ‘over’ the 44 ½-point closing total.

Ironically, that has been the lone game the Saints have covered against a losing team in their last nine attempts.

Though the Saints registered a 15-point win against the Seahawks, there wasn’t that much of a disparity in the statistics.

The Saints had the edge in total yards (494-424) and in time of possession (33:45 to 26:15). However, the Saints had just a slight edge in passing yards (382—366). Most of the Saints’ offensive advantage occurred on the ground where they held a 112-58 edge.

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Drew Brees tossed four touchdown passes - two apiece to wide receivers Marques Colston and Robert Meachem – to lead the New Orleans offense. Brees finished 29-of-43 and completed passes to 10 different receivers en route to amassing those 382 yards.

Christopher Ivory added a one-yard touchdown run in the first quarter, while Colston reeled in a team-high eight receptions for 113 yards.

Matt Hasselbeck found Ben Obomanu for a two-yard score and Olindo Mare connected on all four field-goal attempts for Seattle. Hasselbeck completed 32-of-44 passes for 366 yards, with former first-round pick Mike Williams (six catches, 109 yards) and Obomanu (five catches, 87 yards) proving to be his trusted targets.

When the Seahawks defeated St. Louis 16-6 to take the NFC West title on Sunday night, they sacked Rams quarterback Sam Bradford three times and were credited with a total of six quarterback hits. They also intercepted Bradford once and held star running back Steven Jackson to a season-low 45 yards rushing.

Hasselbeck, whose hip injury limited him to a backup role in the season finale, is listed as “probable” by the Don Best Sports injury report.

Hasselbeck must face a New Orleans defense that ranked fourth in the NFL against the pass during the regular season, allowing 193.9 yards per game.

There's also uncertainty about the Saints' roster. Several key players were inactive for Sunday's 23-13 loss to Tampa Bay because of injuries, including receiver Marques Colston (right knee), running back Pierre Thomas (left ankle) and tight end Jeremy Shockey (groin).

During the game, tight end Jimmy Graham (left ankle), running back Chris Ivory (left foot) and free safety Malcolm Jenkins (right knee) all left with injuries. Graham and Jenkins are both listed as “questionable” on the Don Best Sports injury report.

The Saints were 11-5 SU, but just 7-9 ATS during their 16 regular season matches. They outscored the opposition by an average of almost five points per game (24.0 to 19.2). The ‘over/under’ was split evenly during the 16 regular season outings.

Seattle finished the regular season campaign with a 7-9 ledger both SU and ATS. The Seahawks are 5-3 both SU and ATS at home after outscoring the opposition by an average of 24-19. However, they have been outscored in all 16 regular season games by an average of 25.4 to 19.4.

New Orleans is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 road contests versus a team with a losing record. However, the Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests as a road favorite. The ‘over’ is 20-9 in the Saints’ last 29 efforts as a road favorite and 5-1-1 in their last seven playoff dates.

Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last six as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in its last four as a ‘dog of 10 points or more. The ‘over’ is 8-1 in Seattle’s last nine overall outings and 4-1 in its last five home encounters.