Should I Bet on the Atlanta Falcons This Week?

Written by:
Ean Lamb
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The Atlanta Falcons have been holding their own coming into this game, playing at around the .500 mark.  They will take on division rivals the Carolina Panthers Thursday night.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

The line on this game opened at Atlanta -2.5 and had moved to -3 by Wednesday afternoon.  The Falcons also fit our amazingly hot NFL betting trend for 2022.

We do have the wrong team favored as Carolina is coming in with a number of 0.76.  This also indicates an overlay of 3 to 4 points.  The wrong team favored with the 3 as a base number has gone 1-1 for the favorite.  But the under 3 and touching the -2.5 without going over the 3 has gone an unprecedented 22-5 for the favorite following an adjustment.  We had this one at 22-4 but another team had met the trend very early in the week and fell off our radar. 

The road team in this series has gone 4-1.  Atlanta has won three of the last four meetings and eight of the last ten.

The Falcons are 13-6 Against The Spread vs. a team with a losing record.

The Panthers are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 home games, 5-18 ATS in their last 23 games overall and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

The Falcons pulled out an overtime victory against the Panthers just two weeks ago. 

The Panthers fired defensive line coach Paul Pasqualoni and defensive backs coach Evan Cooper on Monday, so it is possible we will have a team in disarray here.


The 2022 Falcons

Atlanta had the 5th lowest rating on Sagarin but the Falcons were the last team to suffer a loss Against The Spread in 2022.  Not surprisingly ahead of Week 9 this team was 7-3 ATS (4-5 Straight Up). They come into this one failing to cover in two of their last three games.

They just barely managed to squeak out a cover against the LA Chargers -3.5 last week.  There was an underlay of 1.5 to 2 for that game.

- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com

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