Should I Bet the Tennessee Vols in College Football This Week?
For anyone looking to bet the Tennessee Vols, consider some of the recent trends first. In addition to the spread, could the Volunteers have value on the moneyline as well? Live odds can always be found at BetOnline here (up to $1000 in welcome bonus money available).
This article was originally published on October 1, 2022 and has been updated on October 27, 2022.
vs. Kentucky October 28
After a shock upset win over Alabama, the Vols followed up with a game that was tough to bet due to the massive spread against UTM. They did cover the -38.5 point line courtesy of a 65-24 win.
Now it's off to pllay a good Kentucky team and Tennessee is listed as a -13.5 to -11.5 favorite.
A decent enough comparable game was the Fresno State +13.5 to +11.5 vs. USC whereby the favorite USC covered by quite a bit. There was an underlay of 5.5 to 7.5 in that one though. Against Kentucky we get a number of 11.85, which is currently right on the money.
Against Florida a few weeks ago, Tennessee was a -9.5 to -11 favorite and that number was also accurate. They did fail to cover in that game with a five-point win.
In the last five games, Tennessee has only covered once using the current spread.
Tennessee Vols 2022 Schedule
Sept 3 Ball State
Sept 10 at Pitt
Sept 17 Akron
Sept 24 Florida
Oct 1 OPEN DATE
Oct 8 at LSU
Oct 15 Alabama
Oct 22 UT Martin
Oct 29 Kentucky
Nov 5 at Georgia
Nov 12 Missouri
Nov 19 at South Carolina
Nov 26 at Vanderbilt
Week 7 vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
This one will prove how good Tennessee really is this year.
They come into this game as a +7.5 or +7 road dog depending on the book. We get a number of 8.39 Alabama, which mostly has the game with a 1-point underlay.
Tennessee is 5-0 for the first time since 2016 with wins over three ranked opponents, including a dominant 40-13 rout at LSU last Saturday.
"We really just take it as a grain of salt, not getting too high, not getting too low, just staying even-keeled and making sure we're doing our job every day," Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker said this week.
Tennessee has not beaten Alabama in ten games. In fact, they haven't done so since 2006.
Week 6 @ LSU Tigers
The line on this game was Tennessee -3 (-2.5). The line had been on that later number for only brief periods heading into Friday.
We had a number of 3.83 favoring LSU. This means the wrong team was favored and that meant an overlay of around 7 points.
Of the games we've analyzed, the dog (or team that should have been favored) has covered in 9 of 14.
That was not the case here as Tennesse routed LSU 40-13.
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Week 4 vs. Florida Gators
The line on Florida vs. Tennessee hit -11 favoring the Vols by 7:30 pm ET Friday evening. The line had trended from -9.5 to 11. The power ratings gave us a number of 11.56. The line was On the Money by game time after opening as a 2-point Underlay.
A comparable game coming into this one was Texas Tech vs. NC State, which went from -9.5 to -10.5 and resulted in the favorite NC State covering by 13 points. That line was On the Money as well.
At -11, action was closer to 60% on the Vols.
We had Tennessee covering the -11 point line and we were right there in the final two minutes with Tennessee in control in the final two minutes. But as noted above, Florida managed to do just about everything right accept win in the final seconds. They ultimately covered and left us and all the Vols backers shell-shocked.
Hendon Hooker threw for 348 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 112 yards and a score to lead No. 11 Tennessee to a 38-33 victory over No. 20 Florida Saturday.
Week 2 @ Pittsburgh Panthers
Tennessee (81.56) vs. Pittsburgh (77.91) provided us with the number 1.51 once home field was factored in. The line was between -6 and -7 Tennessee and that translated into an Overlay of 4 to 5 points.
Tennessee won by 7 and covered the spread at some books, while pushing at others. Gambling911.com was backing Pittsburgh at +6.
We would note that the line here was relatively stable throughout the week (between 6 and 7).
Action was 60% on Tennessee.
This article was originally published on September 24, 2022 and updated on October 27, 2022
- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com
