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The USC vs. Notre Dame spread was coming in at -5.5 favoring the Irish. The total on this game was set at 61.5.
USC TROJANS (3-2) at NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (5-1)
USC begins life after Steve Sarkisian when it visits No. 14 Notre Dame on Saturday night.
The Trojans (3-2 SU and ATS) fired their head coach on Monday and named offensive coordinator Clay Helton as the interim head coach. Helton held the same role in the school's Las Vegas Bowl win in 2013. This decision came on the heels of two straight home losses to Stanford (41-31) and Washington (17-12), but they did win big in their only road tilt of the season two games ago, 42-14 at Arizona State.
The Fighting Irish improved to 5-1 (SU and ATS) with their fourth straight ATS victory when they took down Navy 41-24 last week.
These schools have always been great rivals with USC holding a commanding 13-6 SU advantage (12-7 ATS) in this series since 1996 including 6-3 SU (5-4 ATS) on the road during this timeframe. Last year's game in Los Angeles was a total blowout with the Trojans prevailing 49-14 with 577 total yards of offense and a 37:39 time of possession. USC has also been a great bet coming off an SU loss with a 9-0 ATS record since 2013, and also benefits from the fact that road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, off an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite, are 48-18 ATS (73%) when playing on a Saturday.
But bettors thinking the Irish will exact revenge from last year's lopsided loss can point to the their opponent's 8-27 ATS mark on the road after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games since 1992, or Brian Kelly's 28-14 ATS record in October games as a college head coach.
USC has plenty of injuries to contend with in C Max Tuerk (knee) being out for the season, DT Claude Pelon (knee) doubtful and three questionable players for Saturday in WRs Steven Mitchell (ankle) and Darreus Rogers (hamstring) and OL Khaliel Rodgers (personal).
Notre Dame has suffered plenty of major ailments this year with season-ending injuries to QB Malik Zaire (ankle) and RB Tarean Folston (knee), but there are no recent injuries to contend with.
USC's offense was averaging 46.8 PPG in its first four games before managing only 12 points in last Thursday's loss to Washington. Although the school has an average time of possession of just 25:09, it has still gained 495 total YPG and 7.5 yards per play with 179 YPG on 5.3 YPC coming on the ground and 316 YPG on 9.6 YPA and 70% completions occurring through the air.
Senior QB Cody Kessler threw for at least 3 TD in each of his first four games but struggled mightily versus the Huskies with only 156 passing yards, 0 TD and 2 INT. But Kessler certainly has the ability to bounce back strong on Saturday night, especially considering how he carved up Notre Dame's defense for 372 passing yards (9.3 YPA) and six touchdowns with no interceptions. He will continue to target WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (33 rec, 619 yds, 18.8 avg, 6 TD) most frequently, as the sophomore has at least four catches and 82+ yards in all five games this season.
On the ground, USC has gone with the two-headed attack of RBs Tre Madden (333 rush yds, 6.2 YPC, 4 TD) and Ronald Jones II (307 rush yds, 8.1 YPC, 3 TD). Despite the score last week, both players ran well versus Washington, as the powerful 225-pound senior Madden produced 120 yards on 17 carries (7.1 YPC), while the speedy 185-pound freshman Jones ran for 65 yards on just eight totes (8.1 YPC).
USC's defense has played very well in the past two weeks in holding Arizona State and Washington to 15.5 PPG and 377 total YPG. The defense has been on the field for nearly 35 minutes per game this season, but has still limited opponents to 158 rushing YPG (3.9 YPC) and 230 passing YPG (6.3 YPA). While the unit has been unable to force a turnover in two contests this season, it has also racked up four takeaways in two other games.
Notre Dame's offense has been consistently potent all season with 37.8 PPG and 504 total YPG (7.2 yards per play). These numbers jump to 42.7 PPG and 531 total YPG at home where the school is 4-0 (SU and ATS). The offensive balance has been exceptional as the Irish have rushed for 239 YPG (5.9 YPC) and thrown for 265 YPG (9.0 YPA).
Sophomore QB DeShone Kizer has done a nice job filling in for injured Malik Zaire with 66% completions for 1,143 yards (8.9 YPA), 8 TD and 4 INT this season. Kizer has also run for 111 yards and three touchdowns in the past three games. His on-field maturity has certainly been helped by superstar WR Will Fuller, who has caught 29 passes for 571 yards (19.7 avg) and seven touchdowns. Fuller led Notre Dame with 75 receiving yards at USC last season.
But the team's most productive player has been senior RB C.J. Prosise who has rumbled for 779 yards on 7.1 YPC and 9 TD. Only once has he failed to reach 98 yards on the ground, which was two weeks ago at Clemson. Prosise has also become a valuable receiver for Kizer with eight catches for 156 yards and 1 TD over the past two games.
Notre Dame's defense has allowed at least 22 points in five straight contests, but has held opponents to a pedestrian 334 total YPG for the season. While the passing defense has been very effective in limiting teams to 156 YPG on 5.8 YPA, the run-stop unit has been subpar in surrendering 178 YPG on 4.7 YPC. The Irish defense was opportunistic last week with three takeaways, but forced only four turnovers in its first five games of the year combined.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
