Texas vs. West Virginia Betting Line
Carrie Stroup here with your Texas vs. West Virginia betting line. Be sure to claim your FREE $100 BET here from Sportsbook.com.
Texas looks to stay unbeaten in the Big 12 when it travels to Morgantown Saturday night to take on West Virginia.
Last season, these two teams squared off in Austin in what turned out to be one of the most entertaining games of the Big 12 season, with the Mountaineers holding on for a 48-45 victory. However things are different this year, as both teams have new quarterbacks running the show. Texas is led by Case McCoy, who has taken over for last year's starter David Ash, who remains out indefinitely with a concussion. While McCoy has not put up huge numbers, he has been solid and played smart football while relying on the Longhorns' top-notch running game (203 YPG, 29th in FBS). The problem for Texas has been consistency, as it has a tendency to play beneath its talent in some weeks. Through their first eight games, the Longhorns are 4-4 ATS, including failing to cover during their victory over Kansas last season. While the Mountaineers have struggled this season, they have shown the ability to play well at home as an underdog, defeating Oklahoma State 30-21 despite being 21-point underdogs on Sept. 28. Life without Geno Smith has been difficult, as the offense under current QB Clint Trickett has really struggled to find consistency. This has really hurt the team as the defense has improved greatly from last year. But the WVU defense has faced a good chunk of passing teams like Oklahoma State and Baylor, but has a different challenge this weekend against the run-first Longhorns. Texas failed to cover the big spread versus Kansas last week, but the school is 52-40 ATS (57%) after an ATS loss under head coach Mack Brown. A big trend favoring the Mountaineers is that any average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPC) facing a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPC) after 7+ games, after allowing 100 rushing yards or less in its last game is 33-8 ATS (81%) over the past five seasons.
While a lot of teams have one running back capable of having a big day, the Longhorns have three. Johnathan Gray (724 rush yards, 4 TD) leads the team this season, but Malcolm Brown was the guy that helped Texas defeat Kansas last weekend by rushing for 149 yards and four touchdowns. He has now rushed for 100 yards in two of the past three weeks. RB Joe Bergeron (5.6 YPC) has played sparingly during his team's five-game win streak with a total of 12 carries, but he rushed for four short touchdowns against WVU last year. Texas has finally begun to establish an identity on offense, and it is using the running game to set up the passing game, where it does have playmakers on the outside. WR Mike Davis (30 rec., 386 yards, 5 TD) is a talented wide receiver that can be dominant when he is focused. Davis has great size at 6-foot-2, but can also run away from the secondary as well. West Virginia is going to be looking to try and stop the run of the Longhorns, which should set up some opportunities deep down the field for McCoy (1,188 pass yards, 7.0 YPA, 5 TD, 5 INT) to take his chances through the air. The defense is starting to turn the corner, allowing just 13.3 points per game in their past three contests. Linebacker Steve Edmond has played very well this season, totaling 47 tackles, two sacks and one interception. He is a big strong linebacker that also has the ability to run side-to-side. The defense must continue to play well, and force WVU QB Clint Trickett to have to get outside the pocket.
Trickett has thrown for 1,218 yards and five touchdowns this season, but has also thrown five interceptions as well. He is coming off one of his better performances of the year in leading his Mountaineers to a 30-27 victory over TCU last weekend, throwing for 267 yards and two touchdowns. Luckily for Trickett, he has one of the best running backs in the Big 12 in Charles Sims, who has rushed for 754 yards and five touchdowns on the season, and is also coming off a big game against TCU with 189 total yards and 2 TD. The Mountaineers are going to play very similar to the way the Longhorns will, as they will try to run the ball to help set up the passing game. With a defense that struggles to stop teams, they must win the time of possession battle and keep the Texas offense off the field. The WVU defense allows 30.0 PPG, which ranks 92nd in the country. In conference play, it has been even worst, at 35.5 PPG. One of the big problems on defense is the inability to make the tackle. The Mountaineers have decent speed and can run around well, but allow too many runners to get extra yards after contact. LB Nick Kwiatkoski has started to play well for the Mountaineers, averaging 7.9 tackles per game. He also had an interception last weekend, and must be proficient in shedding blockers to tackle the Longhorns running backs.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
