UFC 138 Fight Odds

These UFC 138 fight odds are courtesy of our good friends at Sportsbook.com, offering up to $250 in free cash when you open an online betting account today. 

Chris Leben (22-7-0) vs. Mark Munoz (11-2-0)

Sportsbook.com Line: Munoz -250, Leben +190

In Birmingham’s second-ever UFC event, Chris Leben will highlight the card again in a middleweight bout against an aggressive opponent in Mark Munoz. Leben lost the last time he fought in England, losing by unanimous decision to Michael Bisping, after which he tested positive for steroids. Since then, however, the American has rebuilt his career, winning four of his past six fights and earning himself a strong matchup against Munoz.     

Munoz is understandably favored in this matchup, coming off three consecutive wins in the Octagon. Although Leben’s last fight was an impressive victory against Wanderlei Silva, Munoz is undoubtedly a step up in class from his previous fights.

Leben (22-7-0) is a premier attacker in the sport, combining boxing, wrestling and one of the most powerful punches in MMA. His primary issue, however, is his defense and ability to stave off effective attacks from stronger opponents. He avoids only 53% of opposing strikes and 54% of total takedowns. Facing an opponent who relies on those two methods of attack heavily, certainly plays against Leben.

Munoz (11-2-0), like Leben, relies significantly on his wrestling ability, in addition to Muay Thai. Offensively, this results in nearly half of his attacks being strikes, with one third as takedowns – areas in which Leben struggles to defend against. And, while Munoz is one of the most aggressive fighters in the middleweight division, what is impressive is that he still ranks as a solid defender, with striking and takedown defense rates at 62% and 66% respectively, making him the play in this event.

Brad Pickett (21-4-0) vs. Renan Barao (28-1-0)

Sportsbook.com Line: Barao -120, Pickett -110

On the undercard for the Leben-Munoz bout for UFC 138, Renan Barao places one of MMA’s longest winning streaks on the line against challenger Brad Pickett. Barao, who has not lost since his first MMA fight in 2005, will enter the Octagon for the second time in this fight, competing in UFC for the first time earlier this year.

The money for this fight is going to Barao for the dominance he has displayed on the winning streak. Surprisingly, however, the lines only have him at a slight favorite at -120, perhaps because Pickett is an England native fighting in his home country. But Barao’s one UFC-level win was a good one, against Cole Escovedo and he won both of his WEC level fights.

Pickett (21-4-0) had a nice winning streak of his own, prior to losing to Scott Jorgensen two fights ago in the WEC 50 event. Pickett is a boxer, with some Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu mixed in, who relies heavily on submissions and takedowns. Those combine for 71% of his skill breakdown. Unfortunately for the Englishman, Barao has proven to be one of the best defensemen in the sport, which should stymie much of his offensive mojo.

Barao (28-1-0) should expect to continue his winning streak because of one number: 86%. That is the percent of total takedowns he avoids, a staggeringly high number that will negate a significant portion of his opponent’s attack. Barao has also fought in a UFC event, which Pickett has not, which should give the Brazilian comfort fighting under this level of pressure, and guide him to victory.      

Thiago Alves (23-7-0) vs. Papy Abedi (8-0-0)

Sportsbook.com Line: Alves -275, Abedi +215

Fighting against easy competition, Papy Abedi has cruised to an 8-0 record to kick off his MMA career. Thiago Alves is far from easy competition, however, and will give him his first real test as the two square off for a welterweight battle in the Octagon. This will be Abedi’s first UFC fight, while Alves has lost three of four in UFC bouts.

As an elite and established welterweight fighter, Alves is receiving most of the action in this bout. This is a particularly interesting betting scenario because there is very little data on his opponent, who while extremely talented, has only fought on minor circuits prior to this.

Alves (23-7-0) was once among the best welterweights in the world, fighting Georges St-Pierre in 2009 for the UFC Welterweight Championship, only to lose by unanimous decision. His Muay-Thai and Jiu-Jitsu fighting style make him a top striker for his weight. To keep the odds in his favor, he will have to unleash those attacks early and never let his inexperienced opponent settle in. 

Abedi (8-0-0) has fought exclusively in Europe prior to this bout, and continues that trend – albeit on an American circuit – with this battle in Birmingham. Of his eight wins, five of them have come via knockout while two of them were submissions. This is an indication that although his fights were against easy competition, he made easy work of them. If he can rattle Alves early, he has the chance to make a big splash in the UFC world with an upset victory.       

Terry Etim (14-3-0) vs. Edward Faaloloto (5-2-0)

Sportsbook.com Line: Etim -600, Faaloloto +400

On the undercard of UFC 138, an up-and-comer in Edward Faaloloto will challenge UFC veteran Terry Etim in a lightweight bout. Both fighters are coming off losses, with Faaloloto’s coming in the form of a TKO from a barrage of punches from American Michael Johnson.

The lines for this event heavily favor Etim, seemingly giving Faaloloto no chance in this fight. But the Hawaii native has a far better chance than the odds indicate. Although he is much shorter than his opponent, his atypical fighting style often provides challenges for his opponents.

Etim (14-3-0) has fought eight UFC fights in his career with a 5-3 record in that span. Most recently, he lost via submission to Rafael dos Anjos in UFC 112, but prior to that had won four in a row. It should be a concern for bettors, however, that he is coming off a significant layoff, not having fought since April of last year. Submissions account for 61% of his attacking game, and Etim will have to get into that early if he wants to avoid an upset.

Faaloloto (5-2-0) enters this match with only one UFC fight under his belt, the loss to Johnson. Although he was defeated quickly, his Kajukembo style of martial arts has the potential to give opponents trouble. This results in his game being very strike-heavy, with 64% of his skill breakdown in that category. Although he cedes four inches to his opponent, the heavy odds in his favor make him the play in this fight.         

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter