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What to Know Before You Bet on the ECU vs Cincinnati Game November 11

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Nov/10/2022

Forget everything the experts are saying as it applies to the East Carolina vs. Cincinnati game.  We believe this one comes down to getting the Straight Up record for the Bearcats (7-2) more in sync with their record Against The Spread (2-7).

There is an Underlay Here

Sagarin this week has Cincinnati rated at 76.96 with home field of 2.09 tacked on.  East Carolina has a number of 72.64.  The line opened on the money Bearcats -6.5 (we got 6.41) and became a 1 point underlay with the movement to -5.5 by Thursday.

Betting Tip: It is rare this far into the season to have a team with a winning record (7-2) having an ATS record of just 2-7.  Typically the oddsmakers will want these two records more in line with one another.  This factor alone gives the Bearcats quite the edge here when it comes to betting.

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Further Line Analysis

We've monitored just four games this season that have moved above and below the number 6, three have seen the dog cover while a lone favorite did so in the remaining game.  The favorite covering did have an accurate line and won by eight points with a -6.5 line. 

These four analyzed games have seen lines that moved up (5.5 to 6.5), as opposed to the line trending down in this one.

How Much to Bet the Cincinnati Bearcats Moneyline?

Betting the Bearcats moneyline makes sense this week as you'll only be required to wager $20 to win $10 (the $20 is returned assuming Cincinnati wins and you profit $10).  The reason this bet makes sense is that Cincinnati has gone 31-1 Straight Up since 2017 as a home favorite.

More Hot Trends: ECU vs. Cincinnati

The Pirates are 7-1 Against The Spread in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

The Pirates are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

East Carolina is 12-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Pirates are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

The Pirates are 2-9 Against The Spread in their last 11 Friday games.

The Bearcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Friday games.

Cincinnati is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.

The Bearcats have won three of the last four games in this series over the last four years, three by more than the current spread.

Margin of Victory Prop Bets

Rot     Winning Margin     Moneyline
2019     East Carolina to win by 1-6 pts         +375
2020     East Carolina to win by 7-12 pts         +650
2021     East Carolina to win by 13-18 pts         +1100
2022     East Carolina to win by 19-24 pts         +2500
2023     East Carolina to win by 25-30 pts         +4500
2024     East Carolina to win by 31-36 pts         +7000
2025     East Carolina to win by 37-42 pts         +10000
2026     East Carolina to win by 43 or more pts         +10000
2027     Cincinnati to win by 1-6 pts         +300
2028     Cincinnati to win by 7-12 pts         +380
2029     Cincinnati to win by 13-18 pts         +450
2030     Cincinnati to win by 19-24 pts         +800
2031     Cincinnati to win by 25-30 pts         +1500
2032     Cincinnati to win by 31-36 pts         +2200
2033     Cincinnati to win by 37-42 pts         +4000
2034     Cincinnati to win by 43 or more pts         +4500

Double Result Prop Bets

Rot     Double Result     Moneyline
2035     East Carolina/East Carolina         +280
2036     East Carolina/Tie         +4000
2037     East Carolina/Cincinnati         +550
2038     Tie/East Carolina         +2000
2039     Tie/Tie         +4500
2040     Tie/Cincinnati         +1400
2041     Cincinnati/East Carolina         +800
2042     Cincinnati/Tie         +3500
2043     Cincinnati/Cincinnati         Ev

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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