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When You Should Make Your Super Bowl LVII Bets

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Jan/20/2023

This is the best time to make your Super Bowl LVII bets.

Key Points

– Timing is everything when making Super Bowl LVII bets.

– Super Bowl odds are the most precisely calculated of any NFL game in a season.

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When You Should Make Your Super Bowl LVII Bets

There will be thousands of ways to bet on Super Bowl LVII by the time the game kicks off on February 13. Sportsbooks will have a full two weeks to prepare and fill their boards. 

With all that time, when is the best time for bettors to make their Super Bowl LVII bets? It’s a great question and the answer really comes down to the types of bets one wishes to make.

The Super Bowl is a unique occasion. It is the single largest betting event for bookmakers in North America. It also draws a large international audience. As a result, the odds are the tightest and most precisely calculated of all NFL games during a given season.

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Timing Is an Issue

The Super Bowl differs from other sporting events not only in size but also in timing. The AFC and NFC championship games take place a full two weeks ahead of the Super Bowl. Oddsmakers are busy even prior to the championship games looking at how the odds might  shape up for potential Super Bowl matchups.

Oddsmakers will generally have an idea of how the odds will open even before the conclusion of the two conference championship games. What helps sportsbooks is that they have a full two weeks to adjust their Super Bowl odds after they have been made public. 

By the time the game begins there will have been several thousand wagers made on the game. Where do your Super Bowl LVII bets fit in?

The Point Spread

If you bet on the Super Bowl point spread during the first few hours of the market being open, smart bettors and seasoned gamblers would tell you that you are too late. 

When the market opens, professional bettors have poured in a ton of money on one side or the other. Sportsbooks, as a result, have made their adjustments and the best number has dried up shortly after the market opened. 

Take the last 14 Super Bowls as an example. The team that drew the early action on the point spread covered 11 times with one push. It’s difficult for the average bettor to get in early, plus the average bettor rarely listens to good advice. It’s like a doctor telling you to eat more fruits and vegetables. It sounds good, but we don’t do it.

Ultimately, it would be in the best interest of bettors to get in on the point spread early. At the very least, explaining football line movements can benefit smart handicappers. Bettors with accounts at multiple sportsbooks will have an advantage. They can check for any variations in lines and odds.

Super Bowl LVII Bets - Totals

Like the point spread, the Super Bowl Over/Under has the highest betting value in the early going. The early predictions from sharp bettors help shape the market for the following two weeks leading up to the game.

However, the Super Bowl is one of the few times when public money exceeds sharp money. Casual bettors wager a lot on the Super Bowl. These bettors typically wager on Overs and smart bettors have to take that into account when betting on the Super Bowl total.

What usually happens is this. The opening game total gets bet down early. It rises as the public starts pumping money on the Over. The total then falls again as sharp bettors buy back the Under because of the inflated total. If you want success betting Super Bowl totals, take a page from the book on how sharps bet the NFL playoffs.

Betting the Moneyline

Betting the Super Bowl moneyline is a popular wager because of its simplicity. Bettors simply pick the team they believe will win. Many casual bettors don’t want to worry about a point spread. 

Because of its widespread appeal, the Super Bowl underdog is frequently a popular bet. That’s because the underdog offers a higher payout than the moneyline favorite. When the majority of bets start to come in closer to kickoff, the moneyline underdog attracts a lot of action. That can reduce the odds on the favorite.

If you are looking at betting the favorite, waiting until closer to game time is beneficial. You will get a better price by waiting. That said, if you like the moneyline underdog, you should place your bet as soon as the odds are available. 

Game & Player Props

Super Bowl prop betting started with the 1985 Chicago Bears. There was a bet available on William “Refrigerator” Perry to score a touchdown. Perry did score and with that a love of props was born.

Now, a majority of Super Bowl LVII bets will be on props. Once thought of as "sucker bets," bettors have found that props have an advantage. The odds for prop bets are much softer than they are on the point spread and game total. As a result, more seasoned bettors are turning to this market. 

Props for the Super Bowl normally open on Thursday following the conference championship games. If you're searching for the best odds, make sure you have an online betting portal that provides you with everything from lines and odds to stats and player updates. 

Closer to kickoff, there are some prop bets that do have merit. A number of Yes/No props are worthy of a look. Bets like “Will there be overtime?” or “Will there be a safety?” will draw a lot of money from casual bettors looking for a big payout.

The cost of the "No" bet on those kinds of props can be reduced thanks to this infusion of public money. Still, most bettors find the discounted odds to be prohibitively expensive.

Super Bowl LVII Bets - Novelty Props

Novelty props are those that focus on non-game activities. For example, a popular novelty bet is on the length of the singing of the national anthem. What color Gatorade gets dumped on the winning coach at the end of the game is another. 

There are bets right now - NFL props for Maher, comebacks, Kliff, and Kings - on betting boards not even related to the Super Bowl.

These bets are the topic of many conversations leading up to the big game, but not all sportsbooks will carry these bets. For some of these bets, you might be able to find some beneficial information on social media.

For the national anthem, for example, you might find a leak that reveals the singer practicing. You might find a set list for the halftime show. Keep an eye out for any information that can help you beat the books. Otherwise, remember that these bets are pretty much like playing slots or roulette.

Final Note

As part of your Super Bowl betting strategy, timing is everything. If you want to win more Super Bowl LVII bets, make sure you are getting the best odds available. In most cases, that means timing your bets right.

If you miss out on opening odds or an overnight line adjustment, remember that there are still solid bets available to those who wait. Bet wisely and enjoy the game!

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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