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Free MLB Picks - June 16, 2023

Written by:

Don Shapiro

Published on:

Jul/16/2023

Well, we got hosed on Saturday with James Paxton very un-James Paxton-like as he surrendered six runs in three innings Saturday in a loss to the Cubs, making this his worst performance of the year. Boston had won nine of their last ten prior to this game while the Cubs only won three.

Today Boston is a +130 dog starting Kutter Crawford (3-4, 4.11 ERA). Justin Steele will start for the Cubs. He's 9-2 with a 2.56 ERA.

It would be hot to ride Boston and just assume Saturday was a momentarily blip, but we'll move on from this matchup.

Kyle Bradish has been quietly pitching well for the Baltimore Orioles, posting a 1.74 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in his last five starts heading into the break and will face the Miami Marlins today. Bradish is 5-4 with a 3.32 ERA. He blanked the Yankees for six innings to earn his fifth victory Thursday.

Baltimore has won the last two games of this season against Miami.

Steven Okert has been rock solid for the Marlins, going 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA.

The Pirates appear to be coming completely undone while San Francisco is rebounding a bit.

The Giants starter Alex Wood (4-3, 4.68 ERA) tossed five shutout innings for a victory against the Rockies in his last start but has been inconsistent. He got crushed in his last two starts while pitching a shutout prior to that. It's all a matter of which Alex Wood shows up for this game. And in 90 at bats, Pirates hitters have gone 24-for-90 against him.

Philadelphia is 8-2 in the last ten meetings vs. the San Diego Padres. They are a -150 favorite in Sunday's game. Both teams are winning 60% of their games of late.

Seth Lugo is 3-4 with a 3.39 ERA for San Diego. He hasn't had a win in his last six appearances. He's permitted 23 hits on 86 at bats versus this Philadelphia lineup. Bryce Harper is 7 for 21 with two homers against him while Alec Bohm is 3 for 7 with a homer. Lugo is due for a win but this is a tough spot and especially with the Phillies solid record against San Diego of late.

The price on Atlanta is tempting as it falls just below our -180 limit at as low as -165 at WynnBet. The Braves are winning 70% of their games of late and are 6-2 in the last eight versus the White Sox, who are only winning 30% of their games.

The Braves send out Kolby Allard (0-0, 4.22 ERA). He yielded three runs across five innings against the Guardians in only his second start of the season while blanking the Twins for 4 2/3 innings prior to that one in his return from the IL.

The White Sox batters are 5-for-28 against Allard. It's a relatively small sampling but gives some clue as to how he might perform in this one.

Dylan Cease is 3-3 with a 4.30 ERA for Chicago. He has not had a win since May 23. He was tagged for five runs and 11 hits in six innings and allowed three runs against the A's in the game prior to that. He's only allowed the current Braves line up to hit 4 of 21 at bats.

The Brewers-Reds series has stayed UNDER 4 in the last three meetings. That's crazy when one considers Milwaukee had scored five or more runs in six of their prior seven games overall while Cincinnati did the same in four of their last five.

Adrian Houser starts for Milwaukee. He owns a 3-2 record with a 3.68 ERA. He pitched well in a no-decision against the Cubs his last start and enjoyed a win against the Mets before that with two runs permitted over six innings.

The Reds career statistics vs. Houser are 26-for-100 with 4 home runs.

Ben Lively starts for the Reds with his 4-5 record and 3.85 ERA. His last loss was to Milwaukee and he does not have a win in his last two starts. He did only give up a single run to the Brewers.

The Milwaukee Brewers career statistics vs. Lively are 12 for 44.

This matchup is due for an OVER but that number is too high at 11.

Texas has won the last two versus Cleveland of their first meetings this season but are only winning 40% of their games overall compared to the Guardians winning at a 50% clip.

Tanner Bibee is 5-2 with a 3.34 ERA for Cleveland. He allowed only a single run over five innings in a no-decision against the lowly Royals and won in his prior three starts.

Martin Perez has not had a win in his last two starts. He was obliterated by the Astros in his last start and allowed three runs -- two earned -- over seven innings versus the White Sox prior to that.

Neither team's bullpen is particularly good at the moment. So while we can see both starters keeping this one UNDER the 9, it's also easy to see one or more of the bullpens blowing it later in the game.

The Mariners we can get at -170 in their home game against a Detroit team that is looking for the sweep. Seattle has won 60 percent of their games of late. Detroit has won 60% as well.

Seattle was 6-1 in their last seven versus Detroit prior to the last three wins by the Tigers.

Reese Olson is 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA. He exited his last game against the Rangers with a left knee contusion. Olson racked up a career-high nine strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings of one-run baseball against the Twins prior to that one.

Bryce Miller is 5-3 with a 3.97 ERA for Seattle, which has the best bull pen over the last ten games. He seeks out his first win over two no-decisions, the last start resulting in three runs given up. Miller is also coming off the IL with a blister.

Difficult to pull the trigger on Seattle, Miller and the best bull pen due to the -170 plus price tag.

It comes down to the last game of the night with Houston a -130 road favorite against the LA Angels.

Houston is 6-2 in the last eight versus the Angels, a team that has only won two games in their last ten (one of which was a win last night against the Astros).

Cristian Javier is 7-1 with a 4.34 ERA and is desperate for his first win since June 3. He was also torched for eight runs over 4 1/3 innings against the Rangers his last start and gave up six runs in four innings vs. the Cardinals before that. One would think he'd be looking to make amends here against this unraveling Angels squad.

He's allowed 15 hits in 63 at bats versus the Angels and unfortunately Shohei Ohtani is 6 for 19 with two home runs against him. Subtract that 6 from the 15 and Javier has performed well against the Angels overall. Luis Rengifo is 3-for-6 against him but only .217 on the season.

Tyler Anderson is 4-2 with a 5.25 ERA for LA. He was lit up for four runs over 2 2/3 innings vs. Detroit his last start but tossed five scoreless innings before that in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks. He had a quality start before that game and beat the Royals before that. His last start seems more of an outlier.

In a small sampling of 27 he's allowed 11 hits by the Houston's current lineup.

It might not matter how good Anderson is in the end. The Angels currently sport the worst bull pen of the past month (ERA at 6.59).

The Angels are 6-13 in their last 19 games when playing at home against Houston.

Take Houston -130