Free MLB Picks - August 29, 2023

Written by:

Don Shapiro

Published on:

Aug/29/2023

We did have a good pick with the Yankees-Tigers UNDER but our other UNDER on the Nats-Blue Jays game failed to come through. Check out all the top handicappers picks at the G911 Sports Hub here.

Braves @ Rockies

The total moved off the 12.5 to 12 despite early action skewed on the OVER.

Guardians @ Twins

Gavin Williams of the Guardians was strong to start off the month of August but has struggled in his last two starts. He'll be facing off against a Twins team that has a 27.7% strikeout rate facing right-handers, which is the highest in the league. Better than 60% of the action was on Cleveland at +146 perhaps for that reason.

Pablo Lopez of the Twins has had limited experience facing the current Cleveland roster, but he was pummeled in 26 at bats with 11 hits (.460).

He surrendered five runs across five innings in a tough matchup against the Rangers on Thursday but had won four straight prior to that game.

The OVER was seeing greater than 60% of the action as of Noon ET, nothing too lopsided.

With seven of the last ten meetings between these two teams staying UNDER the current total, take the UNDER 7.5 here.

Rangers @ Mets

There is some indication that the Rangers are starting to get their act together. Other than Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, the rest of the roster have hit no more than three homers against lefties this season and here we have Andrew Heaney who hasn't had a win in his last three starts.

Alonso is 0-for-3 against Heaney.

Jose Quintana is coming off a loss starting for the Mets. He allowed five runs over 5 1/3 innings on Wednesday in a loss against the Braves. He surrendered 2 and 1 runs, respectively, in his prior starts.

Yes the Rangers current lineup is 22 of 69 against Quintana but without a homer.

Half of the last ten meetings between these two teams has stayed UNDER the current total of 8.5. Five of the last six games the Mets have played in have gone UNDER the current total and New York hasn't scored more than 3 runs in seven of their last eight.

Everyone is on Texas and the line has moved accordingly from -120 to -140.

Likewise, everyone betting the total is on the OVER. Despite this, the line has dropped to 8.5.

We will be on Texas -140 here

Brewers @ Cubs

The total on this game is coming in as low as 6.5, though you can still get the total at 7. The UNDER was seeing better than 90% of the cash coming in. BetOnline has the total at 6.5, so this should tell you quite a bit as we are fairly confident the sharp action is on the UNDER. Remarkably, some of the books opened the number at 8.5.

In the last ten meetings, only two of the games have stayed UNDER 6.5. One of those featured today's Milwaukee starter Corbin Burnes.

He's allowed 25 hits off of 98 at bats versus these Cubs including six home runs, two of which came courtesy of Dansby Swanson who has 19 on the season thus far.

That's little scary when we are looking at an UNDER 6.5. But Burnes has been pitching especially well of late and is coming off a start where he gave up three homers and six runs in six innings Wednesday in a loss to the Twins. He shut out the Dodgers for seven innings in a no-decision Thursday.

The Cubs Justin Steele surrendered three runs, two earned, over six innings Thursday against the Pirates.

He's allowed 27 hits off of 93 at bats versus these Milwaukee Brewers. Three of those were home runs, two by Willy Adames.

Take the UNDER 6.5 Here

Braves @ Rockies

65% to 80% of the action was on the OVER, so we'd expect the books to move the number from 12.5 to maybe 13. Instead all the books were on the 12 as of Tuesday afternoon.

Charlie Morton is 13-10 with a 3.37 ERA for Atlanta. He'll be coming off of three wins. In 52 appearances against the current Rockies lineup, he's surrendered just two home runs.

None of the last ten games he's started in have gone OVER 10.

Padres @ Cardinals

We have seen the Padres go from a -118 favorite all the way up to -155. The books really do not want you betting San Diego this evening. 60% to 80% of the action was on the Padres.

San Diego starter Seth Lugo had a win in his last start. That was six shutout innings while allowing just three hits against the Marlins. Seth Lugo shut out the Diamondbacks for six innings and struck out nine in the Padres’ 4-0 victory prior to that but did not factor into the decision. He pitched well before that, allowing just two runs.