Sports Handicapping Central - NFL December 17

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers - The line on this game has moved between the -3 and -2.5 favoring Atlanta. 

We get a number of Atlanta 2.43.  That's right on the money. And in our sampling, favorites in the 2.5/3 range where the number does not go above the 3 have been hitting at a 79% clip over the past two seasons.  That bodes well for Atlanta going up against a Panthers team that has just one win under its belt this season.  Atlanta, meanwhile, is hoping to hit the .500 mark and remain relevant.

Atlanta, after all, still has a shot at the post season.

"It's December football," Falcons defensive lineman Calais Campbell said. "If you want to play in late January, you got to win these."

Atlanta is 7-3 in the last ten meetings versus Carolina.

Falcons were seeing 80% of the spread action when reviewing the Ace Per Head internal data.

The only issue here is this one seems almost too good to be true for the Falcons.

Tampa Bay Bucs @ Green Bay Packers - The Bucs are a +3.5 road dog here and we have the number at 3.71, again right on the money.

Here it's interesting in that favorites of 3/3.5 where the line is accurate haven't had much of an edge.

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans - Both teams shocked last week in different ways.  Tennessee beat heavy favorite Miami Dolphins while Houston lost to the Jets.  Do these teams go back to their norm here?

They've been pretty split in head-to-head meetings but the Texans won their last two in Tennessee.

We get a number of 1.95 Titans with the actual number anywhere from Titans -2.5 to -4

Texas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills - Dallas is mostly a +2 dog here but we've seen the line move up to +2.5.  We get a number of 0.56 Buffalo.

An overlay is detected here.  Overlays in this line range tend to be good for the favorites though the win percentage is not overwhelming at around 64%. 

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com