Fresno State Beats Purdue Outright Payout Odds

Written by:
Ean Lamb
Published on:

Fresno State is a +4.5 underdog going up against Purdue on the road in Week 1.  If you wish to bet the Bulldogs on the moneyline to beat the Boilermakers outright, the payout would be $160 for every $100 bet.  But is this a wise choice?


Perhaps be cautious here.  As Home Favorite since 2018, Purdue has gone 66-8 Straight Up at home (89%).  This isn't entirely convincing, especially with an opponent the likes of Fresno State coming to town.  They've lost an additional game at home as an underdog.  Two of those losses as a home favorite happened the last two years.

Let's now look at how accurate the line is for this game. It opened at Purdue -4.5 and moved to -4 most books.  A few dropped the line to -3.5.  We get a number of 7.33.  This gives us an underlay of between 3 and 4 points.

Last year's college football betting model showed little in the way of any edge with underlays of 3 to 4 points in this line range.

There's a new starting quarterback in town for Purdue with Hudson Card and a new offensive coordinator, Graham Harrell.

Card hopes to re-establish himself at the “Cradle of Quarterbacks” after starting just two games in three seasons with the Longhorns.

Starting for Fresno State is quarterback Mikey Keene.  He went 8-3 as UCF’s starter last season. Keene’s success.

The 2,222-mile trip to Purdue is scheduled to be the longest road trip the Bulldogs make this season.

The Bulldogs own 40 all-time wins over power conference schools including at least one each of the past two seasons.

- Ean Lamb,

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