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Heading into Wednesday's post position designations it has become abundantly clear to those of us at Gambling911.com that there is no clear cut favorite despite I Want Revenge technically having the shortest odds.
I Want Revenge came in with +350 odds at Bookmaker.com where the payout would be $350 for every $100 bet.
"He's not the lone ‘darling' of this race," says Don Shapiro of Gambling911.com. "By the start of Saturday's Derby we are very likely to see a new favorite."
For gamblers this means that all odds will pay out nicely among the top 5 candidates. Then again, in past years, entries such as Friesan Fire would likely have paid out double what is currently listed (+700).
"It all depends on which way you look at things," says Shapiro. "I Want Revenge, Dunkirk< Quality Road and Pioneer of the Nile are in a practical deadlock between +350 and +500 odds. Without the competition, each horse would probably be offered around +200."
Papa Clem and Chocolate Candy are two other entries expected to make the final cut come Wednesday. Both have odds around +1200, which would pay out $1200 for every $100 bet at Bookmaker.com.
But even more appealing are the vast number of long shots that pay out $1500 or better for every $100 bet.
Quality Road has been stricken with two quarter cracks in the past month, Dunkirk couldn't race as a 2-year-old because of shin problems and Friesan Fire hasn't had a race in seven weeks.
Ray Kerrison of the New York Post wrote: "When Derby week started at Churchill Downs yesterday, there was one universal cry from horsemen on the backstretch: There's no Big Brown this year. Then, under their breaths, ‘Thank God.'"
"I could name you 10 horses who could win it," said Bob Baffert, the astute trainer who already has won three Derbies and will saddle a top contender, Pioneerof the Nile, this week.
"It's wide open," echoed D. Wayne Lukas, who has won four Derbies, and will saddle a 50-1 longshot Flying Private on Saturday.
The Kentucky Derby is expected to be the most bet on single day sporting event of the year, predicts Gambling911.com.
Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher
