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The Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins meet in a Christmas Day game. The Packers have been staying alive in the NFC playoff race. The Dolphins want to bounce back after a loss to the Bills. Who will be the right NFL pick?
This one has trended from Green Bay +6 and moved to +3.5 by Saturday.
Looking at some comparables from this season we have Seattle +6.5 to +3.5 Detroit where the road team dog Seattle covered and won by 3 points. It featured an overlay of 3 that ended up on the money.
Cincinnati -5 to -3.5 Pittsburgh had the road favorite Cincinnati covering and winning by 7 points). But the line was mostly on the money for this game as it hung around 4.5 for much of the week.
With the Packers and Dolphins we get a number of Miami 2.19. This means there has been an overlay of 1 to 3.5 points.
Overlays in this line range (above 3, touching the 3.5) have gone 20-5 Against The Spread for the dog and that trend is starting to show in the NFL as well. Our sample size in the NFL has been small (9-4 ATS for the dog).
The Packers are a good option here even at +3.5 and the weather should make them feel a bit at home with temperatures in the low 50's. That's cold for us here in Miami.
Find out if the folks from BetUS agree with our pick.
Broncos vs. Rams
A meaningless game for the most part. It will air on Nickelodeon, where - dare we say - it belongs.
Outside of the kiddies, for the rest of us this game is all about finding the right betting trend.
The line has gone from Denver -1 to -3. We have the wrong team favored as the number comes up Rams 0.47.
In college football at least, the dog has gone 12-4 Against The Spread when the wrong team is favored in the 3/2.5 range (not going above the 3). Our sample size in the NFL is simply not big enough.
Take the Rams +3 here.
Find out if the folks from BetUS agree.
Bucs vs. Cardinals
Despite their 6-8 record, Tampa Bay is very much in the playoff picture. In fact, they currently lead their division.
The line on this game has shot from Bucs -6 to -8 across the board. It opened even lower earlier in the month.
- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
