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That fair haired maiden and Gambling911.com elite reporter Carrie Stroup has been offering up her NFL picks here the entire season. As a Sportsbook.com “insider”, she knows where the public action is going when it comes to the game spreads.
“I look at teams that are getting 80 percent or more of the betting action then usually bet against them,” says Stroup.
The rationale is that “the house always wins in the end”.
“Usually I’ll just stick with the top 2 or 3 teams getting the most volume and go against those teams. In the long run, the record should be just above 50 percent. I won’t pick the Detroit Lions if they are getting 90 percent of the action against Arizona if the game as a whole is not getting significant volume.”
Stroup’s system was analyzed Thursday in the Wall Street Journal.
The paper reports that Daniel Fabrizio, president of the website Sportsinsights.com, has found that when one team garners at least 80% of the bets, the other team wins against the spread 53.2% of the time.
“That is pretty much the ratio I’ve been striving for,” said Stroup.
(Carrie's picks are regularly available on the Gambling911.com website prior to game time)
Her focus in recent weeks has been exclusive to NFL.
“I may start looking at NBA and College Basketball games in the coming weeks, but the NFL affords a few days to review action between when the line is initially posted and the game is played.”
People who bet against every favorite that received at least 80% of the bets would have made money in six of the last eight years, including this season, the Wall Street Journal points out.
Since 2003, the fewer bets an NFL team gets, the greater chance you'd win your bet against the spread. Here are the numbers when the less-bet team is also an underdog.
PCT OF BETS WINS VS. SPREAD LOSSES VS. SPREAD WIN PCT
50% 763 732 51%
45% 681 653 51%
40% 584 532 52.3%
35% 457 419 52.2%
30% 320 290 52.5%
25% 188 169 52.7%
20% 89 70 56%
Source: Sportsinsights.com
- Payton O'Brien, Gambling911.com Senior Editor
