Trump Large Tariff Odds Drop From 71 Percent Chance to 34 Percent Chance at Polymarket

Written by:
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Published on:
Nov/19/2024

  • Betting market goes cold on Trump tariffs plan.
  • Bears head coach becomes new favorite to be fired next.
  • Litecoin rebrands as a meme coin.
  • Troopers assaulted at PA casino.
  • Three of the more recent games resembling Steelers-Browns line move and big underlay have resulted in road favorite covering spread.

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Politics

Trump Less Likely to Impose Big Tariffs According to Betting Market

President-Elect Donald Trump has been touting tariffs.  A betting market opened up at Polymarket asking if Trump would impose hefty tariffs once in office.  Some 77% backed him doing just that.  Then it all came crashing down Tuesday with just 37% believing this would happen.  Nearly $25,000 in bets had so far come in.

The problem: Walmart announced it will likely have to raise prices on some items if tariffs go into effect.

“We never want to raise prices,” Walmart’s CFO, John David Rainey, said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. “Our model is everyday low prices. But there probably will be cases where prices will go up for consumers.”

Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison said the home improvement retailer is concerned about the risk of higher costs and is already having conversations with suppliers about tariffs.

Hyundai and Kia are also bracing for these Trump Tariffs with Genesis in particular facing great uncertainties.

Genesis could be hammered by a trade war as the luxury brand only builds the GV70 in the United States and Korean union members would reportedly have to approve the manufacturing of new models in the U.S.

"We don't have the scale and capability or the skill set even to really bring the, the production back to the US. So they [retailers] looked for other ways to do it," American Apparel & Footwear Association CEO and President Steve Lamar tells Yahoo Finance. "But by and large, what you saw was tariffs being imposed on products that ultimately, in many cases, made their way to consumers in the form of higher prices."

NFL

Matt Eberflus Becoming Big Favorite to Be Next NFL Head Coach Canned

The Bears have lost four straight games and scored a total of 46 points in those games. They fired their OC and it seems like the players have quit on Matt Eberflus.

As a result, BetOnline instilled Eberflus as the 2/3 favorite (-150) to be the next NFL head coach fired.

Brian Daboll is rising up the ranks.  BetOnline has him at 3/1 odds of being axed next.

The Giants have lost five straight and sit at 2-8 on the season. They recently lost to the Carolina Panthers. Daboll may need a miracle (insert History of the World Part II jokes for children of the 80’s like me) to keep his job.

Then there is the curious case of Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy.  His team lost badly to the Houston Texans, yet Cowboys team owner Jerry Jones seems intent on supporting his embattled head coach. 

For now, McCarthy has pretty long odds at 6/1 to be axed next.  Something tells us this can't end well though.

Cryptocurrencies

Litecoin Rebrands as a Meme Coin

In a surprising move, Litecoin (LTC) has officially rebranded as a meme coin.

Since November 14, Litecoin’s official X (formerly Twitter) page has been posting witty and nonsensical tweets. The coin’s value has surged as a result, experiencing a 14% increase in the last seven days. Gate.io, a major U.S.-based exchange, even listed Litecoin under the “memecoin” category, lending credibility to its new identity.

While Litecoin was once known for its reliability and stability, it’s now embracing meme culture.

Litecoin is among the top 5 cryptocurrenices used for funding of online gambling accounts.

Crime

Troopers Assaulted at PA Casino

WASHINGTON COUNTY, Pa. (WHTM) – Two Pennsylvania State Troopers were assaulted while attempting to detain a woman at a casino.

State Police in Washington County say on November 16 an employee at Hollywood Casino at The Meadows confronted Kaleigh McManus, 33, when she entered a restricted area. State Police say McManus proceeded to strike the employee in the face with a closed fist.

A witness came to assist the employee, which State Police say led to McManus assaulting the witness by allegedly punching them at least twice in the face.

McManus attempted to flee through a fire/emergency exit door but was detained by casino security. Two State Troopers responded and attempted to take McManus into custody when she allegedly struck them as well. No injuries were reported by the Troopers.

McManus, a resident of New Haven, Connecticut, was taken to the Washington County jail and is facing charges including aggravated assault, resisting arrest, simple assault, harassment, and disorderly conduct. She was released the following day after posting $2,000 bail.

NFL

Betting Alert: Steelers Stand Out Thursday Night Football

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been on fire of late.  They will come into Cleveland 8-2 both Straight Up and Against The Spread.  The Steelers have won and covered the spread in five straight games.

Then there is the Cleveland Browns, a team that has only won one of eight recent games.  They've covered the spread twice over that span while failing to cover in their two recent games.

One can argue that the Steelers are due to lose Against The Spread.  The Browns have covered in three of the last four games of this series when using the early +4.5 spread.  They split using the current +3.5 number.

We've determined there is a pretty nice underlay on this game as the Steelers should really be -8.

Underlays in the 3/3.5/4 range don't have much of an edge over the last two years in the NFL.   The favorite was covering at a 77% clip in college football however.

The most recent comparables each had the road favorite coming out on top.

  • Philadelphia -3.5 to -4.5 LA Rams (Phil 7.53 - Underlay of 3 to 4) - Road favorite covers.  This game is more similar in terms of line movement and actual vs. what the line should be.
  • Oregon State -3.5 to -5.5 San Diego State (Oregon State 10.64 Big Underlay) - Road favorite covers.
  • WSU -3.5 / -4.5 Arizona (road favorite WSU covers and wins by a lot ) WSU 7.28 Underlay 3.5 to 4.5 - Road favorite covers.

Action was heavy on Pittsbugh and the oddsmakers were reacting accordingly.

Horse Racing

Three Horses Die During Racing at Cheltenham

Sunday's third and final day of the November Meeting at Cheltenham was overshadowed by the death of three horses.

Abuffalosoldier collapsed after winning the Holland Cooper Handicap Chase, the fourth race of the day.

A statement from the racecourse said the seven-year-old, ridden by Sean Bowen and trained by Warren Greatrex, "was immediately attended (to) by expert veterinary professionals but sadly could not be saved".

They added: "Our heartfelt condolences are with his connections."

Bangers And Cash, from the Ben Pauling yard, collapsed earlier in the day.

In the fifth race of the day, Napper Tandy, trained by Matthew Smith, sustained a fatal injury after falling two hurdles from home.

A British Horseracing Authority spokesperson said: "The losses of Abuffalosoldier, Bangers And Cash and Napper Tandy at Cheltenham today are a tragedy for all connections and the thoughts of all of us at the BHA are with them.

"All three were provided with outstanding care and attention throughout their lives by those who cared for them and nobody will be more heartbroken tonight than those individuals.

"As with all fatalities, we will seek to understand the circumstances behind each incident as we strive to continue to reduce avoidable risk in our sport."

Horse Racing

Trainer Paul Valery Suspended

Forida-based owner/trainer Paul Valery has been suspended by the Horseracing Integrity & Welfare Unit until May 14, 2030, for a series of infractions involving his horses and controlled and banned medications, including steroids. He was also assessed $75,500 in fines from five resolutions dated Nov. 15.

Valery's infractions involved the now-disqualified horses Quincy Cafe  and Pure Speight , both suspended from racing through March 2025. Between the two horses, Valery was sanctioned for the presence or markers of the following substances: prasterone, gamma-aminobutyric acid, formestane, and 4-hydroxytestosterone.

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Gambling News

Juan Soto Mets Deal Pays Out $600 for Every $100 Bet

Juan Soto was favored by oddsmakers at BetOnline to land with the New York Mets and that's exactly where he ended up.  The payout would have been $600 for every $100 bet back in October with those odds shortening to 2-1 in November.

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