Written by :
Published on :
One of the biggest news stories in February pertained to the kidnapping and manhunt for the missing mother of NBC Today show host Savannah Guthrie.
Nancy Guthrie, 84, has yet to be found after being taken from her Tucson home on Sunday February 1. Guthrie was last seen on the night of Saturday, January 31, 2026, after being dropped off at her home around 9:48 p.m.
Enter the emerging prediction markets.
One of those prediction markets, Polymarket, began offering trading on whether her captor(s) would be apprehended and when.
Now lawmakers are being called to act.
For its part, Gambling911.com has opted not to promote betting markets related to Guthrie's disappearance. Website partners like BetOnline have also steered clear of offering odds on Guthrie.
"In our 26 years online Gambling911 has never promoted any markets tied to death pools," acknowledged Payton O'Brien, Senior Editor of the Gambling911 website.
To be clear, Polymarket was not offering trading on whether Nancy Guthrie would turn up deceased, but rather when her abductor(s) would be charged.
Over $188,000 has been staked on the outcome so far - almost double the $100,000 FBI reward being offered for information in the search for the elderly woman.
"Betting about the outcome of an elderly woman's kidnapping is stomach turning and insensitive," Evan Nierman, founder and CEO of global crisis PR firm Red Banyan, told the Daily Mail.
"Even if you think prediction markets are useful in other contexts, for most people this instantly crosses a bright red line."
He called for laws around prediction markets to be updated and added: "There is also real danger that deranged people may be incentivized to commit crimes with the hope of profiting from prediction markets."
Kalshi “Khamenei Out” Investigation
Fellow prediction market Kalshi has also come under fire for alleged failure to pay out on another death pool offering, that being on this past weekend's death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iranian state media confirmed the death early Sunday, after a major attack launched by Israel and the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump said hours earlier that Khamenei had been killed in the joint operation.
Premier Plaintiff Law Firm, Lieff Cabraser has been retained to investigate Kalshi for unfair and improper practices connected to its “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader”
More specifically, the outcome prompted criticism from some users, who said the carve-out was not sufficiently clear. Lieff Cabraser said it is examining whether the platform’s disclosures and promotion of the market could have misled traders.
More than $50 million had reportedly been wagered on this market.
Blockchain analysts also identified six suspected insiders who made suspiciously timed bets prior to Saturday's air strikes in Iran.
In a post on X, blockchain analyzer Bubblemaps said most of the wallets that traded on the Iran airstrike were funded within the last 24 hours before the attack and bought “Yes” shares in the “U.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” market just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran and other cities. The accounts had no activity beyond these predictions.
From CoinDesk:
One Polymarket account Bubblemaps pointed to purchased more than 560,000 “Yes” shares at about 10.8 cents each, a position that paid out near $560,000 after the market resolved at $1. Another account bought nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents, turning a six-figure profit. All six profiles were created in February, according to Polymarket data.
Trading volume on the Feb. 28 contract reached nearly $90 million, part of more than $529 million wagered across related strike-date markets since December.
- Alejandro Botticelli, Gambling911.com
