New Betting Markets Released July 30: JD Vance Replaced, Nicolas Maduro Wins in Venezuela
- Millions bet on JD Vance getting the boot but few think he will.
- Vance has mostly been ridiculed in mainstream media since Donald Trump selected the Ohio Senator as his running mate.
- The national electoral authority has proclaimed incumbent President Nicolas Maduro the winner of the Venezuela elections but are the gambling websites ready to grade these bets just yet?
Over $700,000 has been bet thus far at Polymarket on whether JD Vance is replaced on the GOP ticket as Donald Trump's running mate.
Yet the gambling public does not believe this will happen.
Only 11% say Vance will be replaced. Meanwhile, our friends at BetOnline haven't even considered offering this market as of yet, a likely result of lack of interest. You wouldn't know it watching cable news or checking out the Drudge Report.
Polymarket, we should note, does not accept customers from the U.S., unlike BetOnline.
JD Vance is already demonstrating that impersonating Trump is not always an easy task. No matter what anyone may think of Trump, there is little denying he's been honing his expert salesmanship for years and Trump doesn't exactly lack charisma. Vance does.
Politico's Calder McHough writes:
Vance represents himself as the intellectual vanguard of the Republican Party. To his supporters, he contains the promise of something more radical than Trump, influenced by far-right thinkers who disagree with many of the fundamental premises of liberal democracy. But in style, he’s fallen into a common trap for far-right politicians in the Trump era: trying to sound like the guy at the top of the ticket.
Polymarket's market on JD Vance will resolve as follows:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from his candidacy for Vice President in the 2024 US election by 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2024.
In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent JD Vance from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "Yes".
If JD Vance does not announce his withdrawal or is not forced to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race by the specified time, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
When Will the Venezuelan Leader Bets Be Graded?
Venezuelan opposition claims that they possess 73% of the vote tallies but of course the national electoral authority has proclaimed incumbent President Nicolas Maduro the winner of the vote, giving him a third term in office and extending 25 years of socialist party rule. No surprise there.
Regardless of who really won, the betting markets believed Maduro will stay in power.
89% of gamblers say Maduro won the election. That's more than the national electoral authority is claiming Maduro won by (they say 51%).
Polymarket's market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No."
In the case of a two-round election, if this candidate is eliminated before the second round this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Venezuela, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
$3 million has been bet so far at Polymarket alone.
A new market has been introduced. Will opposition leader Edmundo González be arrested before October? Gamblers are divided nearly in half.
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