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Prediction markets had previously offered betting on the deadly and catastrophic Palisades fire in California last year
Alaska Beacon reporter and those he interviewed previously affected by wildfires fear such markets could lead to arson
It's “morally reprehensible", said one person interview for a report on prediction markets taking bets on wildfires.
That piece appeared in the Alaska Beacon, and already it's had an impact apparently.
An Editor's note claims that "The California-specific wildfire betting market, Wyldfyre, took its website offline following the publication of this story."
Kylie Mohr's article asks: "Will betting on wildfires lead to arson?"
It certainly could.
Earlier this year, U.S. Army Special Forces Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke pleaded not guilty to insider trading charges after winning over $409,000 by betting on the U.S. military's surprise January raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Those charges, which mark the first time the Department of Justice (DOJ) has pursued insider trading in an online prediction market, include wire fraud and commodities fraud.
For his piece, Mohr spoke to five individuals impacted by wildfires. Each expressed concerns over bad actors looking to cash in.
From Mohr's article:
In January 2025, Polymarket listed almost 20 questions, created by the platform’s “markets team,” related to the wildfires burning up Southern California. How many acres will the Palisades Fire burn by Friday, three days after it ignited on a Tuesday? Will the Palisades Fire reach Santa Monica by Sunday? When will the Palisades fire be 50% contained? Will the Palisades and Eaton fires be contained before February?
People spent $1.2 million betting on these queries, according to Aeon Magazine. “Wow,” Andrews said repeatedly when she learned the figure. “My first take is that it’s morally reprehensible,” she said. “The fact that someone would feel OK doing that flabbergasts me.”
“The prediction markets are just the wild, wild West,” said Susan Sherman, who grew up in the Pacific Palisades. She lost her childhood home in the Palisades Fire; her late parents had owned it since 1963, and now, it was gone. She sold the empty lot a few months ago. “I look at (betting on the fires) as just being very crass and heartless.”
ONE MAJOR CONCERN stemming from wildfire prediction markets is arson, Mohr writes.
It's actually a terrifying prospect and one we here at Gambling911.com hope prediction markets the likes of Polymarket and Kalshi think twice about before delving into such territory again.
“Imagine what a bad actor might do,” Ann Skeet, the senior director of leadership ethics at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University, told The Alaska Beacon. “A market that might support that kind of activity, I think, is a dangerous market.” Examples might include firefighters or land managers with exclusive information about a fire’s behavior or an agency’s firefighting plans could even be tempted to bet on a fire, which would be considered insider trading.
Thus far, with temperatures soaring across the U.S., neither Kalshi or Polymarket are offering odds on wildfires.
Then there's the aforementioned Wyldfyre, which we thought at first might have been some sort of sick joke.
Gambling911.com tries to keep tabs on emerging prediction markets. This one caught us completely off guard.
"You can't predict fire. But you can trade on it," the site's home page reads.
Three letters come to mind: WTF.
It goes on.
"The first prediction market for California wildfire. County and city — every region priced in real time."
And this: "Prediction markets harness the wisdom of crowds to surface what models and satellites might miss. Wyldfyre turns collective intelligence into better wildfire forecasting — one trade at a time."
The site explains how to start trading, going as far as to instruct users to "pick your region" then "execute the trade".
Markets settle automatically based on actual fire perimeter data, according to the site.
The Wyldfyre site appears not to offer real money trading currently. Its ownership information and contact details are not exactly known.
Wyldfyre’s website claims it will “harness the wisdom of crowds to surface what models and satellites might miss” and turn “collective intelligence into better wildfire forecasting—one trade at a time" all under the guise of "improving fire forecasting".
A spokesperson for the U.S. Forest Service told High Country News that the Forest Service is not interested in prediction market data and does not rely on “any system that treats wildfire as an event for speculation.” California’s state firefighting agency told the publication it has a similar policy.
- Jagajeet Chiba, Gambling911.com
