Written by :
Published on :
It's nearly impossible to keep tabs on the current state of the prediction market industry as it seems a new site emerges each day. In recent days and weeks, Gemini, Coinbase, Fanatics and DraftKings have launched their own prediction market products.
Offshore sportsbooks like BetUS have long offered entertainment type gambling markets, each of which features set pricing based on the odds.
For example, betting on the Golden Globe "Best Motion Picture - Drama" nomination has "Hamnet" favored at -115. This means you would need to wager $115 to win $100 (that initial $115 is returned as well providing the bet is a winner). "Sinners" opened as the favorite but now promises a payout of $125 for every $100 bet.
With prediction markets, individuals make their choices based on a YES or NO. They buy and sell contracts where prices reflect the collective belief about the likelihood of a future event.
Gambling sites like BetUS rely on odds set by a bookmaker whereas prediction markets rely on prices set by traders, reflecting real-time beliefs.
Prediction market sites claim they can operate in all 50 US states as they are technically "not gambling" whereas offshore betting sites insist they are licensed and regulated to do so in jurisdictions outside the US like Curacao and Antigua. State regulators frown on both business models.
Kalshi, for its part, promotes the fact that it is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Kalshi, along with Polymarket, Coinbase, Gemini, Robinhood, Crypto.com, approach the prediction market sector as global cryptocurrency, brokerage firms and financial services companies whereas the likes of DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics do so as traditional gambling entities. FanDuel and DraftKings currently make up the largest share of the US regulated sports betting market. The latter firms need to tread carefully as they risk losing their license in states where they hold sports betting licensees. Close to a dozen states are now either in legal battles with prediction market companies or are contemplating taking action against them. Kalshi, in particular, has fought back hard while Coinbase last week sued Connecticut, Illinois and Michigan.
Prediction markets expand as casino and sports gambling surge https://t.co/YcK8ZgzPZ8 #FoxBusiness
— gambling911 (@gambling911) December 21, 2025
Alex Eule, senior editorial leader at Barron’s, says there has been $13 billion worth of prediction trading volume during the month of November alone. That is up from nearly nothing more than a year ago.
"So this is brand new," he told Fox News.
The likes of Robinhood and Coinbase are using prediction markets to bring more and more sports related trading onto their app.
"They announced so-called 'parlays' on the Robinhood app," Eule noted.
And perhaps the most controversial of all, Kalshi announced plans to introduce college football and basketball portal betting. That has the NCAA livid.
"The NCAA vehemently opposes college sports prediction markets," NCAA president Charlie Baker said in a statement to ESPN. "It is already bad enough that student-athletes face harassment and abuse for lost bets on game performance, and now Kalshi wants to offer bets on their transfer decisions and status. This is absolutely unacceptable and would place even greater pressure on student-athletes while threatening competition integrity and recruiting processes.
"Their decisions and future should not be gambled with, especially in an unregulated marketplace that does not follow any rules of legitimate sports betting operators."
Eule admits he, too, has a tough time differentiating between what is taking place on these prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks like FanDuel.
"To be clear, Kalshi and Polymarket would say 'this is not gambling'," he points out. "It is basically another form of trading, not much different than futures and options."
He added that Kalshi and Polymarket are not the "house" here. "They are basically a middleman taking the 'yes' side of the trade and somebody is taking the 'no' side of the trade. They take a transaction fee on it."
Not all brokerage firms are on board with this.
Eule says that Schwab is worried that young people will view the Monday Night Football bet as the same as their retirement account while Vanguard very clearly told Barron's that prediction markets do not align with their mission.
- Chris Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher
