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Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei being out by a certain day a prediction markets proved to be a popular bet ahead of the current conflict raging across the Mideast.
It is these types of betting markets,t ied to more grisly military action involving Iran, Venezuela and Israel. that have drawn attention lately. And not in a positive way.
Polymarket alone has hosted what Bloomberg estimated as more than $500m in bets related to the Iran war, at one point offering an opportunity to play the odds on the chance of nuclear detonation.
"You have now opened up gambling basically on almost anything and it has turned into this very, very gruesome type of thing on the death of a head of state," said Craig Holman, government affairs lobbyist at the Public Citizen advocacy group, which recently filed a complaint this week over the bets.
Thus far, the U.S. regulated market gambling sites and those offshore have shied away from offering anything related to the war.
Kalshi also ended up cancelling the Khamenei market, which had drawn $54m in trades, noting that US-regulated entities were barred from "having a market directly settling on someone's death".
Suspiciously timed bets related to military operations involving Israel, Venezuela and Iran have added fodder to calls for cracking down on these prediction markets, according to Natalie Sherman of the BBC.
As the pressure mounts, Polymarket has announced steps to more formally police suspicious activity, while Kalshi, which advertises its status as a "regulated exchange", has become more vocal about what it is doing to combat insider trading.
It recently announced punishments in two cases of insider trading and disclosed that it had opened up 200 investigations over the last year.
The company also ultimately cancelled the $54m market around Khamenei's ouster.
Jagajeet Chiba, Gambling911.com
