Hot Line Trends - College Football Games October 29
Here we look at the number 3 and some great overlay and underlay trends.
Through Week 7, these are the results of key sampled games to assist with all your college football betting:
Above the 3 without going below that number and hitting the 3.5:
Favorites/Dogs
Overlays 1-8
Underlays 5-1
On the Money 1-3
Wrong Team Favored 0-2
Below the 3 without going below that number and hitting the 2.5:
Favorites/Dogs
Overlays 0
Underlays 5-0
On the Money. 0-3
Wrong Team Favored 2-2
So, favorites of -2.5, -3, -3.5 where an overlay was detected have covered the spread in just one game out of nine up to this point (1-8).
The underlay, completely opposite. Underlays have gone 10-1 for the favorite.
Lines that were on the money are 1-6 for the favorite.
Let's look at a few games with lines that fall into this range.
Notre Dame vs. Syracuse
The 4-3 Irish go up against the 5-1 Orange.
The Syracuse Orange were hosting Notre Dame on October 29 as a -2 to -3 point favorite. The line had started coming back down on Friday off the -3 to -2.5.
The Orange were rated No. 33 on Sagarin. We get a number of 0.42 for Notre Dame. The wrong team appears to be favored here. The dog has fared especially well under this scenario, but there is no particular edge in this line range.
Arkansas vs. Auburn
The Razorbacks have mostly been a -3.5 favorite. We've seen this one go to 4 at a few books.
Arkansas still sits at the No. 30 spot on Sagarin. Auburn has dropped just outside the Top 50 teams at No. 51. We get a number of Arkansas 3.16. That's right on the money.
The dogs have fared well in this line range when the number is accurate (6-1 Against The Spread). The Tigers have won the last six games in this series. Auburn was a +4 dog last season when they won.
This is a good lean on Auburn, especially coming off three straight losses.
Miami vs. Virginia
The Hurricanes have been a -2.5 road favorite all week.
We get Miami 0.65 and an overlay of 2 points.
The recent trends (overlays going 1-8 for the favorites) certainly bodes well for Virginia.
Both teams are 3-4 Straight Up but Miami only has one cover so far this season.
Virginia did beat Miami last season by two points.
UVA does meet our trend at +2.5
SMU vs. Tulsa
SMU has gone from a -2.5 to -1.5 favorite.
We get a number of Mustangs 3.14, which did have this one on the money but now we've detected a 1.5 underlay.
The Mustangs (3-4, 1-2 AAC) have dropped four of their last five games, suffering a loss to Cincinnati last week.
Tanner Mordecai is in the concussion protocol and his status was not immediately unclear ahead of Saturday's game.
"Tanner's in a day-to-day world," SMU offensive coordinator Casey Woods said. "We've got confidence in Preston. He's done a good job, so seeing him operate within the entirety of the offense has been fun and I know he'll be ready if called upon."
Baylor vs. Texas Tech
We get a number of 0.61 that actually favors the Bears. This indicates to us that the wrong team is favored. There is about a 2.5 to 3.5 overlay. The dog has performed well when the wrong team is favored but there is no significant edge in this line range between the 2 and 3.
Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M
Ole Miss is a -3 favorite going down to -2.5. The Rebels are coming in with a number of 81.73. We get a number of 0.21 favoring Mississippi. There is a 2.5 point overlay here.
Overlays have gone 8-1 in favor of the dog within this line range. The Aggies have won 3 of the last 4 games in this series.
Texas A&M meets the trend here.
- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com
