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If you are into making money like we are, you'll want to tap into one of our favorite trends of the 2022 NFL season. So far it's gone 20-3.
It involves favorites covering when the line is 3 or below, but with the stipulation that the number does hit 2.5 at some point. So, as an example, if the line is between -1 and -2, that does not meet the trend. Likewise, when the line goes above the 3, those games are not recorded as part of this trend. We indeed have a few of those this week.
Let's take a look at three games that match our criteria early on. Note: If they go above the 3, they're a "no play". Only our sample books apply and we are not interested in a line that occurred for a mere hour.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
This one opened at Arizona -3 and moved down to -1.5 by Tuesday before moving back up a half point to -2.
We get a number of 4.48 for the Cardinals, a 1.5 to 3 point underlay. Seattle has sat among the Sagarin cellar for the first half of the season and only got out this week. Seven teams are now below the Seahawks and Seattle improved a whole point since last week. This is a team with a 5-3 record Straight Up and Against The Spread.
Seattle has won three of the last four games of this series, including a home game against the Cards just a few weeks ago.
Arizona doesn't provide the most convincing case for a win here as they are just 3-5 Straight Up. They've lost three of their last four games. One standout here is that the Cards nearly beat the undefeated Eagles on their home field back on October 9.
The Seahawks are 6-14 Against The Spread in their last 20 games following a Straight Up win. They are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. And Seattle is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Arizona is 5-1 Against The Spread in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. But they are just 4-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.
The three dogs that covered were either overlays (2) or on the money (1).
Go with Arizona here as long as we stay at 3 or below and this one appears it will do just that
Rams vs. Bucs
The Bucs will most certainly cover here, right? I mean, they can't possibly lose four straight and five of their last six, can they?
The Rams lost three of their last four games coming into this one.
Sagarin still has Tampa Bay sitting in the No. 8 spot. LA has dropped out of their top 10. And the line we get is 3.28 for Tampa. The line that's available is Bucs -3. Yep, as accurate a spread as you're gonna find.
Game lines on the money in the 3 range have resulted in the following:
Below the 3 (must hit 2.5): 11-1
Above the 3 (must hit 3.5): 2-2
We'll go with the Bucs -2.5 here if you can still get them on that number
Ravens vs. Saints
Baltimore has gone from -3 to 2.5. There was still plenty of time between this analysis and when this one kicks off Monday night.
We get a number of 3.24 in favor of Baltimore, which mostly results in an accurate line.
The Saints are 3-9 Against The Spread in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
We'll be on Baltimore early at -2.5 here.
- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
