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A line on a game is deemed correct without any shading if the calculations from weekly updated power ratings total accurately.
Variations are typically a result of injuries or consistent recent trends.
In a 2017 Week 10 game, the San Francisco 49ers were dealing with a series of injuries, among them, FS Jaquiski Tartt (arm) and TE Cole Hikutini (knee) on injured reserve.
Taking on the Giants, the newly updated power ratings would indicate a PICK’EM or maybe a -1 with either team favored. Indeed, San Francisco opened at -1. This line would be considered correct.
A marquee might be a game such as the Saints vs. Bills. The power ratings have New Orleans as a firm -2. The line did open with New Orleans -2.5, again pretty much on the money.
The Cowboys vs. Falcons line should be a PICK’EM or -1 favoring Atlanta.
Here we have a bit of shading up to two full points. These are the types of games we like to consider the shading and the idea that Dallas stands a better than 50% chance of covering the spread. Perhaps Atlanta wins by two points or the Cowboys win outright.
Large shades of 3 points or more should be avoided as there are often underlying reasons (the aforementioned injuries and historic trends).
- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
