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Kalshi, the legal prediction market, made headlines two months ago when it entered the sports betting arena.
And for those of you who thought all those sweepstakes casinos had uncovered a unique loophole, Kalshi has one-upped them all.
Regulated sportsbooks have to gain state approval for licensing and they get to pay that ginormous tax (in New York State it's close to 50%), prediction markets \ fall under purview of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. This means the purchase and trading of such contracts can take place in all US states, including California and Texas.
Up until now, offshore sportsbooks like BetUS, local bookies like Big Louie, Daily Fantasy Sports like PrizePicks and even those sweepstakes casinos that now incorporate "free-to-play" sports betting, had the market cornered in these two most populous states.
Kalshi is proving formidable, to say the least. So far, leading up to the Final Four, some $328,612,302 was wagered across both games. And that number is sure to increase substantially come game time. They were just added to the SpankOdds feed last week.
Kalshi's platform operates a bit differently than your average sportsbook. If you thought the Eagles would win this year's Super Bowl, the YES was set at 47% and did pay out $105 for every $100 bet. You are limited in what can be bet. Kalshi does not currently allow for spread betting or totals.
It's not immediately known how Kalshi is faring this March Madness. We do know how DraftKings is doing, and the news is not good.
“We are not doing well,” DraftKings‘ director of sports, Johnny Avello, told The New York Post in a phone interview on Wednesday. “The bettors did very well this year. They’ve got a lot of bullets, and they will be throwing those bullets at the rest of the events in the future. They had a good football season, too.”
Kalshi may be legal but some regulators say "not so fast".
The prediction market betting company just sued Nevada and New Jersey over its recent cease and desist orders.
Posting on X (formerly Twitter), Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour wrote: “Both states have issued cease and desist orders that fundamentally misunderstand prediction markets and undermine the foundation of U.S. financial markets, which are regulated by the federal government.
“We have made every effort to engage proactively with both Nevada and New Jersey and try to educate them about prediction markets, how they are regulated, and how critical they are … but our words fell on deaf ears.
“I can’t speak to why they are taking this action, but prediction markets have proven their use, so it is a shame that these authorities are still trying to censor them.
“We are left with no choice: sue.”
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