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- 38 Attorney Generals Back Massachusetts Lawsuit Against Kalshi
- A Small Minority Investors Are Reportedly Predicting the Future at Polymarket
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Prediction Markets
A Small Minority of Investors Predicting the Future at Polymarket
April 26, 2026 (10:21 am EDT)
Polymarket prices are highly accurate in predicting future events. The source of that accuracy is less obvious.
In a new working paper, we find it is not the “wisdom of crowds,” but a small minority of informed traders.
Fewer than 3% of accounts appear to drive price discovery; most perform no better than chance.
The majority generates most of the volume but little of the information, effectively funding the informed minority.
Polymarket prices are highly accurate in predicting future events. The source of that accuracy is less obvious.
In a new working paper, we find it is not the “wisdom of crowds,” but a small minority of informed traders.
Fewer than 3% of accounts appear to drive price discovery;… pic.twitter.com/sCUK7pmXeX— Roberto Gomez Cram (@rgomezcram) April 24, 2026
Prediction Markets
38 Attorneys General Back Massachusetts Lawsuit Against Kalshi Over Prediction Markets
April 25, 2026 (9:22 pm EDT)
Coalition of 38 attorneys general supports Massachusetts lawsuit alleging Kalshi enables unlicensed sports betting activity.
In September 2025, the Massachusetts Attorney General sued Kalshi. The commonwealth claims they are running an illegal unlicensed sports betting business. Massachusetts believes this is just gambling dressed as finance.
The argument is that Kalshi’s “event contracts” (bets on outcomes like games) are functionally the same as sportsbooks.
The filing was submitted to the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts and calls for enforcement of state authority over gambling regulation.
- Chris Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher
