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Mixed Bag for a Hot Overlay, Underlay Trend in College Football Tied to the 3

Written by:
Dan Shapiro
Published on:
Nov/06/2022

There were some hot trends involving lines that were either under the 3, hitting 2.5, or above the 3, hitting 3.5.  Let's take a look.

The Underlays

Underlays hitting 2.5, 3, and/or 3.5 were 15-2 for the favorites (88.2%) so far this season on games we've analyzed.

Florida @ Texas A&M

The line on this game had been -3 or -3.5 Texas A&M depending on the book and the number we got was 4.23.  That had the line at a small one-point underlay. 

This one went against our trend with the dog Florida not only covering but winning outright.

LOSS

Kentucky @ Missouri

The line on this game opened -2.5 favoring Kentucky and was sitting at Missouri +1 overnight Friday heading into Saturday morning.  We had the Wildcats 2.84.  This one opened on the money and we were seeing a 2.5 underlay as a result of the shift from UK favorite to Mizzou favorite.  In other words, the wrong team was favored here. 

Kentucky had previously gone 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  They ended up winning by 4, just enough to cover even the opening line here.

WIN

UCF @ Memphis

The line on this game had moved from UCF -5 to -3 and we were getting a 7.13, clearly indicative of a 2 to 4 point underlay.

Central Florida did cover with a 7-point win, in line with this hot trend.

WIN

Oklahoma State @ Kansas

The number here was Cowboys -3.5 and we had it at Kansas -1.5 by the overnight hours Friday into Saturday morning.  The number we got was Oklahoma State 6.94, suggesting a spread that was completely out of whack.

This was the biggest underlay of them all at 3.5 to 7.5 points as well with the wrong team (KU) favored by Saturday morning.

The Jayhawks won big here.

But this is one where you look to see if one of the teams had a key player injured.  In this case, the Cowboys quarterback Spencer Sanders was out with an injury.

LOSS

Overlays

Unlike the underlays around the 3 going towards the favorites, the overlays were providing the dogs with an edge.

Iowa @ Purdue

The line on this game moved from Boilermakers -4.5 to -3.5 across the board.  We got a number of 1.28 and an overlay of 2 to 3 points.

We had this one ending with a Purdue field goal victory and a cover for Iowa +4.5 as Purdue has had only two dominating performances thus far this season (the reason they have covered in just three games despite a 5-3 Straight Up record). 

That didn't exactly go as planned but Iowa still covered due to their big win.

WIN

Baylor @ Oklahoma

The Sooners were sitting at -3.5 all week across the board.

We got a number of Oklahoma 1.48, indicating an overlay of 2 here.

Two good comparables we liked were:

Iowa +3.5 vs. Illinois in which the road dog covered just barely with an Illinois 3 point win.  This one had an overlay of 1.5.

FSU +3 / +3.5 vs. NC State saw the road dog FSU cover with NC State winning by 2 points. The overlay was one point.

The Bears won last year following years of Oklahoma dominance.

Both these teams are 5-3 Straight Up.

Baylor was our lean at +3.5.  They covered and won outright.

WIN

Syracuse @ Pitt

The wrong team was favored here.  We got a number of 2.44 Syracuse so this is was a 6-point overlay with Pittsburgh the -3/3.5 home favorite.  The Panthers though now win five straight in this series as the Orange are now losing some of their luster following a strong start to 2022. Pittsburgh only covered in two games prior to this one.

LOSS

Houston @ SMU

The line on this game rose sharply from SMU -1.5 to -3.5.   We were getting a number of SMU 1.85 so this one mostly opened on the money and became a 1.5 overlay. 

Houston can still be in the championship picture with a win. The Cougars (5-3, 3-1 AAC) and Mustangs (4-4, 2-2) each come into this game having won their last.   Both teams have 3-5 Against The Spread.

But games with an overlay with a line both above and below the 3 were 2-3.  Overlays generally a half point above or below the 3 (not both) were going 73.5% for the dogs.

Texas @ KSU

We had Texas 0.49 and an overlay of 2 points for the Longhorns as the line was coming in at -2.5.

The Wildcats fit the bill for this trend at +2.5.

The favorite, Texas, would go onto win and cover.

LOSS

Clemson @ Notre Dame

The line in this one has gone from Tigers -3.5 to -4.5 and back down to -3.5.  We had Clemson 1.18, indicating a 2.5 to 3.5 overlay.

The trend definitely favored Notre Dame and they won outright.

WIN

Wake Forest @ NC State

The number we got was Wake 1.04 but the line moved from Demon Deacons -3.5 to -4.5 and back down to -3.5.  This translated into a 2.5 to 3.5 overlay.

NC State fit the trend and indeed the covered and won.

WIN

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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