Odds Have Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf Favored to Be the Next President of Iran

Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf is favored to become the next permanent President of Iran following the crash of a helicopter that killed Iran's president Ebrahim Raisi along with his foreign minister Sunday afternoon. 

The helicopter crashed on Sunday as it was crossing mountain terrain in heavy fog, an Iranian official told Reuters, and rescuers were struggling to reach the site of the incident.

The official said at the time that the lives of Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian were "at risk following the helicopter crash", which happened on the way back from a visit to the border with Azerbaijan in Iran's northwest.

"We are still hopeful but information coming from the crash site is very concerning," the official told Reuters.

Raisi was 63.

The prediction social media platform Manifold opened a betting market Sunday.

Baqer Qalibaf odds of assuming the role of Iranian President were set at +240.

According to article 131 of the Islamic Republic's constitution, if a president dies in office the first vice president takes over, with the confirmation of the supreme leader, who has the final say in all matters of state.

Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, however, was coming in with the second shortest odds at +270.

Manifold claims to be a very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability.
"By using the combined wisdom of thousands of users, we outperform real-money platforms. For example, in the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all prediction markets and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance."