Overlays 5-21 Edge Goes to the Dog With a Base of 3: College Football November 5

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Don Shapiro
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So far in our sampling this season of key games, when the line has moved either below the 3 and touching the 2.5 or above the 3 and touching the 3.5, overlays have mostly gone towards the underdog at a clip of 80.1 percent or 21-5. 

Let's look at a few for the November 5 slate.

Iowa @ Purdue

The line on this game has moved from Boilermakers -4.5 to -3.5 across the board.  We get a number of 1.28 and an overlay of 2 to 3 points.

We are going to hone in on Iowa as they have the edge with this particular trend.

At 4-4 both Straight Up and Against The Spread, this Hawkeyes team doesn't have a whole lot more to play for but pride.

The Boilermakers have won four of the last five meetings, making a play on Iowa not the most enticing. 

The Hawkeyes are 10-4 Against The Spread in their last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game but are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.

The Boilermakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Purdue is coming off a bye.  They previously lost to Wisconsin following a four-game win streak.

It's true that the Boilermakers quarterback Aidan O'Connell eclipsed 300 yards for the third straight game, but he also threw three interceptions.

"I think we're all disappointed in the turnovers," Boilermakers coach Jeff Brohm said. "Aidan was disappointed. We talked about it after, and he's still angry about it. You know, it happens. You learn from it and move on."

The Hawkeyes, meanwhile, managed to halt a three-game skid with a 33-13 victory over Northwestern last week.

Spencer Petras threw for 220 yards and a touchdown and ran for a score.  Drew Stevens kicked four field goals and the Hawkeyes limited Northwestern to 177 total yards.

Brohm is 4-1 against Iowa in his career.

We see this one ending with a Purdue field goal victory and a cover for Iowa +4.5 as Purdue has had only two dominating performances thus far this season (the reason they have covered in just three games despite a 5-3 Straight Up record).  One of those was against a far weaker opponent outside the conference while another was a 10-point victory at Minnesota.

Baylor @ Oklahoma

The Sooners were sitting at -3.5 all week across the board.

We get a number of Oklahoma 1.48, indicating an overlay of 2 here.

Two good comparables we like were:

Iowa +3.5 vs. Illinois in which the road dog covered just barely with an Illinois 3 point win.  This one had an overlay of 1.5.

FSU +3 / +3.5 vs. NC State saw the road dog FSU cover with NC State winning by 2 points. The overlay was one point.

The Bears won last year following years of Oklahoma dominance.

Both these teams are 5-3 Straight Up.

Baylor is our lean at +3.5

Syracuse @ Pitt

The wrong team is favored here.  We get a number of 2.44 Syracuse so this is a 6-point overlay with Pittsburgh the -3/3.5 home favorite.  The Panthers have won the last four games in this series but this is a much improved Orange team.  Pittsburgh has only covered in two games so far this season.

The lean is on Syracuse +3.5

Houston @ SMU

The line on this game has risen sharply from SMU -1.5 to -3.5.   We are getting a number of SMU 1.85 so this one mostly opened on the money and was now a 1.5 overlay. 

Houston can still be in the championship picture with a win. The Cougars (5-3, 3-1 AAC) and Mustangs (4-4, 2-2) each come into this game having won their last.   Both teams have 3-5 Against The Spread.

Houston is the lean here at +3.5

Texas @ KSU

We get Texas 0.49 and an overlay of 2 points for the Longhorns as the line was coming in at -2.5.

The Wildcats fit the bill for this trend at +2.5

Clemson @ Notre Dame

The line in this one has gone from Tigers -3.5 to -4.5 and back down to -3.5.  We only get a number of Clemson 1.18, indicating a 2.5 to 3.5 overlay.

We'll back Notre Dame in this one +3.5

Wake Forest @ NC State

The number we get is Wake 1.04 but the line has moved from Demon Deacons -3.5 to -4.5 and back down to -3.5.  We have a 2.5 to 3.5 overlay.

These teams have identical 6-2 records Straight Up but NC State has only covered the spread in two games this season.

Wake Forest may be 4-1 in the series the last five meetings, but these games have mostly been close.

Go with the home dog NC State here

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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