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First things first, games that have featured a line of -3 to -2.5 went in favor of the favorite covering in - get this - 16 of 20 games so far this season. As of Thursday, the Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Bucs game was yet to hit the magic number of -2.5 at the books we monitor specifically for this trend.
One of those books is FanDuel. There the number was moving between the -1 and 1.5 favoring Tampa after Baltimore opened at -1.5. FanDuel did have the number at -2.5 early on.
Tampa is really tumbling on the Sagarin ratings. They are still at No. 7 with a rating of 22.94. Home field advantage tacked on gives us a number of 24.44 and the final calculation for this game: Tampa Bay 1.1. The current line is accurate.
Gambling911.com hasn't necessarily monitored games with lines that are -2 or below and we are less likely to suggest betting on game where the favorite has changed during the course of a week.
The Buccaneers went 2-for-12 on third downs in a game against the lowly Carolina Panthers. That team went up against the Buccaneers with an interim coach and third string quarterback starting.
"I think there's always hope and then there's reality," the 45-year-old Brady said immediately following the game. "The only thing you can focus on is what the reality of the situation is, and that's we haven't played our best football."
As for Baltimore, Lamar Jackson threw for just 120 yards and rushed for 59 yards in a 23-20 victory over the Cleveland Browns this past Sunday. The Ravens enter this game 4-3 Straight Up but just 2-4 Against The Spread.
Jackson vs. Brady Prop Bets
Rot Lamar Jackson (BAL) Total Passing Yards Moneyline
1001 Over 206½ Passing Yards -115
1002 Under 206½ Passing Yards -115
Must Start for action.
Rot Lamar Jackson (BAL) Total Completions Moneyline
1003 Over 19½ Completions -110
1004 Under 19½ Completions -120
Must Start for action.
Rot Lamar Jackson (BAL) Total Passing Attempts Moneyline
1005 Over 28½ Passing Attempts -125
1006 Under 28½ Passing Attempts -105
Must Start for action.
Rot Lamar Jackson (BAL) Total Touchdown Passes Moneyline
1007 Over 1½ TD Passes +120
1008 Under 1½ TD Passes -150
Must Start for action.
Rot Lamar Jackson (BAL) Total Interceptions Moneyline
1011 Over ½ Interceptions -140
1012 Under ½ Interceptions +110
Must Start for action.
Rot Lamar Jackson (BAL) Longest Completion Moneyline
1013 Over 32½ Yards -115
1014 Under 32½ Yards -115
Must Start for action.
Rot Lamar Jackson (BAL) Total Rushing Yards Moneyline
1015 Over 62½ Rushing Yards -115
Rot Tom Brady (TB) Total Passing Yards Moneyline
2001 Over 282½ Passing Yards -130
2002 Under 282½ Passing Yards Ev
Must Start for action.
Rot Tom Brady (TB) Total Touchdown Passes Moneyline
2007 Over 1½ TD Passes -150
2008 Under 1½ TD Passes +120
Must Start for action.
Rot Tom Brady (TB) Total Interceptions Moneyline
2011 Over ½ Interceptions +115
2012 Under ½ Interceptions -145
Must Start for action.
Rot Tom Brady (TB) Longest Completion Moneyline
2013 Over 37½ Yards -120
2014 Under 37½ Yards -110
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
