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U.S. President Donald Trump said he has paused the US military’s “Project Freedom” operation to open the Strait of Hormuz, due to “great progress” being made
On April 17, Polymarket traders were giving the Strait of Hormuz a 74% chance of its shipping traffic getting back to normal, the lowest chances we've seen since the start of the conflict
U.S. President Donald Trump says Hormuz operation has been paused amid US, Tehran talks.
Specifically, the U.S. president said he has paused the US military’s “Project Freedom” operation to open the Strait of Hormuz, due to “great progress” being made towards a “complete and final agreement with the representatives of Iran”. Trump said the operation will be paused for “a short period” to see if an agreement with Tehran can be finalised.
Prediction market traders do not appear to be buying any of it.
On April 17, Polymarket traders were giving the Strait of Hormuz a 74% chance of its shipping traffic getting back to normal. Today (May 5) those chances were set at just 17%, the lowest we've seen since the start of the war.
Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the US is pursuing “a policy of maximum pressure” and “expects Iran to submit to their unilateral demands”, which is “impossible” for Tehran.
How This Market Will Resolve
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz
- T.C. Jackson
