Top Betting Markets: 29% Believe Supreme Court Will Rule in Favor of Trump's Tariffs According to Prediction Markets
Bad news for US President Donald Trump's tariffs as only 29 percent of gamblers believe the US Supreme Court will allow them, according to the prediction market Kalshi. That number ticked down even further to 26% at Polymarket.
On Wednesday, the Supreme Court appeared to signal skepticism about his power to unilaterally impose sweeping tariffs.
The administration is defending the tariffs after lower courts ruled that the emergency law Trump invoked does not give him broad authority to set and change import duties. The Constitution grants that power to Congress.
Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield says the Trump administration’s attorney “had the gall to look all of those justices in the eyes and say these are not taxes on the American people, and they’re doing it by abusing an emergency power.”
On April 23, 2025, Oregon led a 12-state coalition in filing suit in the U.S. Court of International Trade challenging four executive orders imposing sweeping tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Rayfield pointed out that the tariffs come “when Americans are facing an affordability crisis.” He spoke to reporters outside of the courthouse after the arguments, flanked by attorneys general from Arizona and California.
Justice Neil Gorsuch appeared concerned over providing a president with too much power on an issue that helped spark the American Revolution.
“Is the constitutional assignment of the taxing power to Congress, the power to reach into the pockets of the American people, just different?” he asked. “That had to be done locally, through our elected representatives.”
Justice Amy Coney Barrett and Chief Justice John Roberts also raised questions about whether the emergency-power law allowed for tariffs on “any product, from any country, in any amount, for any length of time,” as Roberts put it.
Rules summary per Kalshi: If the Supreme Court, in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, rules that Trump's tariffs are legal before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Supreme Court.
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These markets courtesy of Polymarket
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