Shock Poll: Kamala Harris Wins Every Swing State

• Nate Silver Model has Kamala Harris winning in every swing state with 15,273 out of 70,000 simulations.
• Polymarket betting market has Trump winning most of the swing states.
• JD Vance now favored to win VP Debate Tuesday night.
• Big underlay in the Titans-Dolphins Monday night game observed.

Politics

Shock Poll: Kamala Harris Wins in Every Single Swing State

Nate Silver's presidential model has Kamala Harris winning in every swing state with 15,273 out of 70,000 simulations while Donald Trump winning every swing state is the next likely outcome with 13,912 out of 70,000.

Silver said there is roughly a 40 percent chance that either Harris or Trump will take all of the swing states amid this year's election.

The swing states are those that can go either way as opposed to states that are firmly expected to go for Harris, such as Massachusetts, or Trump, such as Alabama.

When reached for comment by Newsweek on Sunday afternoon, Trump's communications director, Steven Cheung, sent a link to Polymarket's election forecast which has Trump winning the Electoral College 290 to 248, with him taking Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. In this scenario, Harris just gets North Carolina and Nevada.

Harris was coming in at -125 odds at BetOnline as of Monday morning.  Trump came in at +105 odds.

Politics

VP Debate Prop Bets

With Walz at 60 and Vance at 40, the generational gap between the two contenders is sure to add an intriguing layer to the event. Their contrasting experiences, perspectives and energy levels should make for a captivating showdown.

BetOnline.ag posted more than 50 prop bets for Tuesday’s VP debate last week, and you can see the full list below.

One interesting movement of note…the debate winner (according to CBS-affiliated poll or Ipsos if CBS poll does not exist).

Since the debate was scheduled, and all last week, Walz has been a 1/3 (-300) favorite while Vance was a 2/1 underdog. Today, the odds are now flipped as Vance is the favorite at 2/3 (-150).

NFL

Big Underlay in Titans-Dolphins Game

With Tua Tagovailoa out due to a concussion, Tyler Huntley will start at quarterback for the Miami Dolphins on Monday against the Tennessee Titans, coach Mike McDaniel announced Saturday.

The line opened Miami -1 and had moved to -2.5.  Sagarin has not yet taken into account the Tagovailoa injury.  Assuming a healthy Dolphins squad, they have the number at 7.28, indicating a pretty hefty underlay and our model indicates this bodes well for the favorite.

Key matchup

Titans run game vs. Dolphins run defense. Miami defensive tackle Calais Campbell said the team's rushing defense so far this season “is not our standard" after the Dolphins gave up 112 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry in the first three weeks. Miami has also been burned for huge plays on the ground. Buffalo's James Cook had a 49-yard touchdown run against the Dolphins in Week 2. Travis Etienne had a 26-yard carry against them in Week 1. Campbell said the Titans could be the best rushing team they've faced so far because of Will Levis' scrambling ability and the production of Tony Pollard, who has 158 yards on 39 carries. The Titans also are looking to get backup Tyjae Spears more involved. Spears had 118 yards from scrimmage with his pass-catching skills out of the backfield in Miami last December.

NFL

Seahawks vs. Lions Betting

The Seahawks vs. Lions betting line has mostly hovered between Detroit -4 and -4.5 though we've seen it hit -3.5 on occasion.  Sagarin gives us a number of 4.01, which places this one right on the money.  Our model does not suggest any edge here.

Seattle is surprisingly 3-0 to start the new season while Detroit is 2-1.  Lions coach Dan Campbell has lost to the Seahawks in each of the last three seasons.

Seattle's new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, has created a scheme that spreads the ball around to more than one primary receiver.

In the opener, Tyler Lockett had six catches. In Week 2, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a career-high 12 catches. And last week, tight end Noah Fant led the team with six receptions.

DK Metcalf, meanwhile, used his size, speed and strength to have touchdown receptions of 71 yards and 56 yards the past two weeks.