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Just over a week prior to the 2026 Super Bowl, the MVP prop bet was the most wagered on with prediction markets already reporting just over $6 million in volume.
Sam Darnold is the favorite to be named Super Bowl 2026 MVP. His payout would be slightly better than even odds ($110 for every $100 bet).
By comparison, Drake Maye would pay out $230 for every $100 bet while Jaxon Smith-Njigba pays $600 and Kenneth Walker III pays out $850.
Some of Darnold's regular season highlights included the following:
Passing Yards: 4,048 (5th in NFL)
Touchdowns: 25 (Tied-9th)
Interceptions: 14
Completion Rate: 67.7%
Yards per Attempt: 8.5
Passer Rating: 99.1
QBR: 55.7
Darnold's early-season performance was particularly impressive, throwing 16 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions in the first nine games,
In the post season against the Rams, he threw for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns without any interceptions,
Turnover challenges are a concern nonetheless. Darnold dealt with a league-high 20 turnovers—comprising 14 interceptions and 6 fumbles during the regular season.
But there is a reason why Darnold is favored to win the Super Bowl MVP.
"You can't talk about the game without talking about our quarterback," Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald said following the NFC Championship victory over the LA Rams. "He shut a lot of people up tonight, so I'm really happy for him.
"To come out [and play] the way he played, barely practicing, barely throwing the ball, it was really incredible," Macdonald said. "It should go down as one of the best performances in playoff history, I would imagine. It's hard to stack it, but I can't imagine anybody playing any better."
Super Bowl 2026 MVP Odds
Sam Darnold
+110
Drake Maye
+230
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
+600
Kenneth Walker III
+850
Rhamondre Stevenson
+3000
Stefon Diggs
+4500
Rashid Shaheed
+5000
DeMarcus Lawrence
+10000
Cooper Kupp
+10000
Leonard Williams
+10000
Nick Emmanwori
+10000
Jason Myers
+10000
Marcus Jones
+10000
Kayshon Boutte
+12500
Byron Murphy
+12500
Devon Witherspoon
+12500
Hunter Henry
+12500
Coby Bryant
+12500
Ernest Jones
+12500
Mack Hollins
+12500
TreVeyon Henderson
+15000
Christian Gonzalez
+15000
AJ Barner
+17500
Jake Bobo
+17500
Milton Williams
+20000
Andy Borregales
+20000
Uchenna Nwosu
+22500
Tariq Woolen
+22500
K'Lavon Chaisson
+22500
George Holani
+22500
Boye Mafe
+22500
Julian Love
+25000
Elijah Arroyo
+25000
Demario Douglas
+30000
Harold Landry III
+30000
Carlton Davis
+30000
Jarran Reed
+35000
Derick Hall
+35000
Drake Thomas
+35000
Christian Barmore
+35000
Michael Dickson
+35000
Eric Saubert
+60000
Craig Woodson
+60000
Jaylinn Hawkins
+60000
Anfernee Jennings
+60000
Velus Jones Jr.
+70000
Dareke Young
+70000
Tyrice Knight
+70000
Josh Jobe
+70000
Brady Russell
+70000
Kyle Williams
+75000
Robert Spillane
+75000
Bryce Baringer
+75000
Jahlani Tavai
+75000
Elijah Ponder
+75000
Nick Kallerup
+75000
Christian Elliss
+75000
Jack Westover
+100000
Charles Cross
+100000
Efton Chism III
+150000
Austin Hooper
+150000
Jack Gibbens
+150000
Leonard Taylor III
+150000
Cory Durden
+150000
Dell Pettus
+150000
D'Ernest Johnson
+150000
Khyiris Tonga
+200000
Will Campbell
+200000
Brandon Pili
+200000
Nehemiah Pritchett
+200000
Jalen Sundell
+200000
Marte Mapu
+200000
Abraham Lucas
+200000
Jared Wilson
+200000
Anthony Bradford
+200000
Thayer Munford Jr.
+200000
Bradyn Swinson
+200000
Chris Stoll
+200000
Patrick O'Connell
+200000
Connor O'Toole
+200000
Mike Morris
+200000
Charles Woods
+200000
Ty Okada
+200000
Rylie Mills
+200000
Alex Austin
+200000
Garrett Bradbury
+200000
Julian Ashby
+200000
Grey Zabel
+200000
Morgan Moses
+200000
Mike Onwenu
+200000
Chad Muma
+200000
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
