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Fierceness is the early favorite to win this year's Kentucky Derby with a payout of $275 on every $100 bet.
Below we look at the rating for each key component heading into the upcoming Kentucky Derby with 10 being the highest and 1 being the lowest.
Key Factors That Could Lead to Fierceness Winning This Year's Kentucky Derby
Jockey (10)
John Velazquez will be riding Fierceness. He's a three-time winner of the Kentucky Derby.
Trainer Todd Pletcher and Velazquez have combined to win 1,866 races together including a victory at the 2017 Kentucky Derby (G1) with Always Dreaming, also a favorite in that race.
Florida Derby Winner (10)
The Florida Derby has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners, 25 to be exact.
Fierceness assured his favorite status with a victory here. He went wire-to-wire on the lead, steadily opening up the margin until the field got to the turn toward home at Gulfstream Park.
The Favorite (6)
The Kentucky Derby has been contested 115 times since 1908, and the post-time favorite has won the race 40 times for a winning percentage of 34.7 percent. In other words, the Kentucky Derby favorite has gone on to win well over a quarter of the time.
During a period 2013 through 2018 you'd be forgiven for believing the favorite could not lose. He won six straight over that period. Justify (2018), Always Dreaming (2017), Nyquist (2016), American Pharaoh (2015), California Chrome (2014), Orb (2013).
Trainer (9)
Fierceness is trained by Pletcher, as noted above, and has raced for Repole Stable, and was bred in Kentucky by Repole Stable, Inc. Pletcher has two wins in the Derby, one with Super Saver (in 2010) and another with Always Dreaming (in 2017).
Mudder (10)
Severe thunderstorms were in the long range forecast for the day prior to the Kentucky Derby (Friday) with showers anticipated Saturday morning. Just 24 hours ahead of the big race, forecasters were calling for a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Should that happen, Fierceness is ready for it.
Back in August in Saratoga, Fierceness shook off his competition on a sealed muddy track, extending his lead before being geared down by jockey Jose Ortiz to win by 11+1⁄4 lengths in a time 1:09.56.
More Reasons to Bet on Fierceness (8)
“We’re going to go to Kentucky as the Kentucky Derby favorite,” owner Mike Repole said after the Florida Derby win. “I’ve been there before.”
It was the fastest Florida Derby final time since Velazquez and Pletcher teamed up for a win the 2017 Kentucky Derby win with Always Dreaming.
Fierceness also won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by six lengths.
“The fastest horse I’ve ever owned,” Repole said.
That's saying a lot.
Why Fierceness Might Not Win This Year's Kentucky Derby
Post Position (4)
It's not great at 16 but at least he's no longer running from the 17 spot, which has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner. He moves up one due to a Friday scratch.
The Favorite (4)
Last year, at post time, there were 18 horses at the starting gate, with Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice the top two favorites. Mage would ultimately go on to win it.
The co-favorites for the 2022 Kentucky Derby were Epicenter, the winner of the Louisiana Derby, and Zandon, the winner of the Blue Grass Stakes. Rich Strike at 80-1 odds would go on to win it as the second biggest long shot in Kentucky Derby history.
Not Always a Winner (4)
In between the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Florida Derby there was the Holy Bull, which Fierceness finished 3rd in.
2024 Kentucky Derby Betting Odds
Rot To Win The 2024 Kentucky Derby Moneyline
1 Dornoch +2500
2 Sierra Leone +275
3 Mystik Dan +2400
4 Catching Freedom +900
5 Catalytic +4000
6 Just Steel +2500
7 Honor Marie +1600
8 Just a Touch +1100
10 TO Password +4000
11 Forever Young +800
12 Track Phantom +2800
13 West Saratoga +6000
14 Endlessly +2800
15 Domestic Product +2700
16 Grand Mo the First +5000
17 Fierceness +250
18 Stronghold +1700
19 Resilience +2400
20 Society Man +2700
21 AE/21 Epic Ride +4000
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