Pros and Cons for These 2024 Kentucky Derby Contenders

For every pro, there is a con when it comes to most horses running in this year's Kentucky Derby.  For some, there are more downsides than upsides, and vice versa.  Below we take a look at some of this year's contenders strengths and weaknesses.

Favorite Fierceness Has (Had) a Post Position Problem

Sure he's looking like the best in this field, but history does not bode well for this year's Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness.

Promising a payout of $250 for every $100 bet, Fierceness starts from the dreaded No. 17 post position.  This is the only post that has NEVER produced a Kentucky Derby winner.

It's possible he could be moved off the 17 should another horse ahead of him be scratched.  So far heading into this year's Kentucky Derby we weren't seeing this trend.  It did happen with Epic Ride replacing Encino and pushing Fierceness to No. 16 (whew).  Not it's Stronghold's problem.

This of course is offset by a number of other factors. He did win his most recent race, the Florida Derby.  This prep race has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners.

Then again, he finished 3rd in the Holy Bull.

As for the trainers, you can't ask for anyone better than Todd Pletcher.

"His final workout was last Friday. Now it's just what we would describe as routine gallops. ... getting acquainted with the starting gate, the starting gate crew, we kind of do mini trials, going over saddling, trying to get them used to what they're going to be exposed to on derby day."

But the real pro here might be the jockey.

John Velazquez will try to become only the fourth jockey to win the race four or more times. Last year, he won the Preakness aboard National Treasure.

Forever Young the Horse to Beat But...

A horse from Japan is bound to win the Kentucky Derby at some point, and this could even be the year that happens. Both TO Password and Forever Young have had great success entering this year's Derby. 

Forever Young broke from an unfavorable outside post and lost ground the entire way in the UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan on March 30 , but still pulled off the win.

No UAE Derby winner has ever gone on to win the Kentucky Derby.  This could have something to do with the overseas travel.  Who really knows?

But here is another pro: Forever Young now starts from the best post position in this year's Kentucky Derby: No. 10 courtesy of the Encino scratch.

Is your head spinning yet?

Forever Young was offering a payout of $800 for every $100 bet as of Friday morning.

The 0-10 Kentucky Derby Jockey

This is not to take anything away from Luis Saez but he's 0-for-10 running in the Kentucky Derby and this year he's riding Dornoch (+2500).

Two years after his disqualification aboard Maximum Security, he had his best finish in the race, third, with Essential Quality. Since then, he's placed 17th aboard Charge It and seventh with Tapit Trice. But Saez has only finished seventh or better on three occasions.  Ouch!

Catalytic's jockey, José Ortiz, owns the second-longest Derby drought in the field (0 for 8), with his most recent showing 14th in last year's Run for the Roses aboard Kingsbarns.

A Horse That Has Not Ridden on Dirt Yet

Endlessly has never ridden on dirt, and that could present a problem.

Certainly, his past performances cannot be ignored.

The first four races of Endlessly’s career came on turf, and he won three of them. His last two races have come on synthetic surfaces, winning both.

We'd be remiss in failing to point out he had a poor showing in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (8th).

So Many Positives With Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone could end up the favorite come post time. He was offering a payout of $275 for every $200 bet as of Friday morning.  Technically, Sierra Leone was the co-favorite with Fierceness.

The main concern with Sierra Leone is the post up position.  The No. 2 post position has had the second most wins, but none since 1978.

One year after riding Pretty Mischievous to victory in the Kentucky Oaks, Tyler Gaffalione will try to end an 0-for-6 Derby drought aboard points leader Sierra Leone. The Kentucky Oaks victory and 0-6 performance in the Kentucky Derby might offset one another.

Only Four Jockeys in This Year's Kentucky Derby Have Won It Previously

Florent Geroux, riding Just a Touch, and Flavien Prat's, riding Catching Freedom, lone victories came by disqualification; while Hall of Famer John Velazquez is on the hunt for Derby immortality after being denied a seat at the table three years ago.

Joel Rosario, who in April was elected to horse racing's Hall of Fame, is one of only two jockeys in the Derby 150 field with a true victory. He'll be riding Track Phantom (28-1).  Despite some solid 1st and 2nd place showings, Track Phantom's last race at the Louisiana Derby placed him 4th.

Junior Alvarado is making his fifth Derby start, and his first in consecutive years since 2018-19, but is yet to reach the winner's circle or finished on the board in the Run for the Roses.  He will be entering with Resilience.

Brian Hernandez Jr. has finished no better than eighth in the Derby.  He will be saddling up on Mystik Dan.

Irad Ortiz Jr., the winningest North American jockey for seven years running, and will be riding Domestic Product here at 27-1. 

Ortiz is still vying for his first Derby victory. The 31-year-old Puerto Rican is 0 for 7 in the Run for the Roses. His best finish came in 2019, when he placed fourth aboard Improbable.

Odds to Win the 2024 Kentucky Derby

After Post Position Draw
1     Dornoch         +2500
2     Sierra Leone         +275
3     Mystik Dan         +2400
4     Catching Freedom         +900
5     Catalytic         +4000
6     Just Steel         +2500
7     Honor Marie         +1600
8     Just a Touch         +1100
10     TO Password         +4000
11     Forever Young         +800
12     Track Phantom         +2800
13     West Saratoga         +6000
14     Endlessly         +2800
15     Domestic Product         +2700
16     Grand Mo the First         +5000
17     Fierceness         +250
18     Stronghold         +2000
19     Resilience         +2400
20     Society Man         +4000
21     AE/21 Epic Ride         +5000

Early

1     Fierceness         +275
3     Track Phantom         +2000
4     Dornoch         +2000
5     Sierra Leone         +325
6     Hades         +4000
7     Mystik Dan         +2000
11     Epic Ride         +5000
13     Catching Freedom         +1000
15     Honor Marie         +2000
17     Domestic Product         +2200
19     Just Steel         +2500
20     Resilience         +2000
29     Stronghold         +2000
30     Just A Touch         +1700
34     Forever Young         +800
38     Encino         +2800
43     Endlessly         +2500
49     Common Defense         +6600
50     West Saratoga         +6600
51     T O Password         +7500
52     Catalytic         +6000
53     Society Man         +6600
54     Grand Mo The First         +7500