What Are the Payout Odds if Baeza Wins This Year's Kentucky Derby? Enters as Rodriguez Scratched
Baeza will offer a payout of $1200 for every $100 bet to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Bob Baffert has scratched one of his horses from the Kentucky Derby, thus allowing Baeza in.
Baeza is a 3 year old colt and has raced from 2024 to 2025. He was sired by McKinzie out of the Big Brown mare Puca.
Key Factors That Could Lead to Baeza Winning This Year's Kentucky Derby
Jockey (9)
Across his seven Kentucky Derby mounts Flavian Prat has only finished out of the superfecta once.
Prat was booked to ride Neoequos, and is now slated to switch to Baeza now that Rodriguez has been scratched.
Past Performance (7)
He lost to Journalism by less than a length in the Santa Anita Derby and figures to improve off that finish. Has a big shot if he gets in the field.
More Reasons to Like Baeza (6)
From DRF:
After debuting on turf at Del Mar last December, Baeza finished second to Rodriguez in a maiden race at Santa Anita before winning one by 4 3/4 lengths on Feb. 14. Most recently, Baeza finished second to Journalism in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Journalism is expected to be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby.
“He came out of the [Santa Anita] Derby really well,” Shirreffs said. “He breezed an easy half [in 50 seconds on Monday]. He looks good, everything’s good. He’s handling his training.”
Why Baeza Might Not Win This Year's Kentucky Derby
Post Position (2)
He will start from the 20 spot, which has resulted in just two horses winning the Kentucky Derby. These victories were achieved by Big Brown in 2008 and Rich Strike in 2022, so both were recent.
2025 Kentucky Derby Updated Post Positions and Odds
- Gate 1: Citizen Bull (17-1)
- Gate 2: Neoequos (57-1)
- Gate 3: Final Gambit (17-1)
- Gate 4: American Promise (13-1)
- Gate 5: Admire Daytona (39-1)
- Gate 6: Luxor Cafe (15-1)
- Gate 7: Journalism (7-2)
- Gate 8: Burnham Square (19-1)
- Gate 9: Grande (19-1)
- Gate 10: Flying Mohawk (36-1)
- Gate 11: East Avenue (33-1)
- Gate 12: Publisher (30-1)
- Gate 13: Tiztastic (20-1)
- Gate 14: Render Judgment (13-1)
- Gate 15: Coal Battle (30-1)
- Gate 16: Sandman (5-1)
- Gate 17: Sovereignty (11-1)
- Gate 18: Chunk of Gold (33-1)
- Gate 19: Owen Almighty (44-1)
- Gate 20: Baeza (50-1)
Early Odds to Win the 2025 Kentucky Derby
*Listed in order of post position
| Kentucky Derby 2025 | Trainer | Jockey | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Citizen Bull | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia | 20-1 |
| 2. Neoequos | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Flavien Prat** | 30-1 |
| 3. Final Gambit | Brad Cox | Luan Machado | 30-1 |
| 4. Rodríguez | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 12-1 |
| 5. American Promise | D. Wayne Lukas | Nik Juárez | 30-1 |
| 6. Admire Daytona | Yukihiro Kato | Christophe Lemaire | 30-1 |
| 7. Luxor Café | Noriyuki Hori | João Moreira | 15-1 |
| 8. Journalism | Michael McCarthy | Umberto Rispoli | 3-1 |
| 9. Burnham Square | Ian Wilkes | Brian Hernandez Jr. | 12-1 |
| 10. Grande | Todd Pletcher | John Velázquez | 20-1 |
| 11. Flying Mohawk | Whit Beckman | Joe Ramos | 30-1 |
| 12. East Avenue | Brendan Walsh | Manny Franco | 20-1 |
| 13. Publisher | Steve Asmussen | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 20-1 |
| 14. Tiztastic | Steve Asmussen | Joel Rosario | 20-1 |
| 15. Render Judgment | Kenny McPeek | Julien Leparoux | 30-1 |
| 16. Coal Battle | Lonnie Briley | Juan Vargas | 30-1 |
| 17. Sandman | Mark Casse | Jose Ortiz | 6-1 |
| 18. Sovereignty | Bill Mott | Júnior Alvarado | 5-1 |
| 19. Chunk of Gold | Ethan West | Jareth Loveberry | 30-1 |
| 20. Owen Almighty | Brian Lynch | Javier Castellano | 30-1 |
| 21. Baeza - ae | John Shirreffs | Flavien Prat | 12-1 |
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