Early odds for Citizen Bull have him paying out $1400 for every $100 bet should he win the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

Citizen Bull was sired by Into Mischief out of the Distorted Humor mare No Joke

Key Factors That Could Lead to Citizen Bull Winning This Year's Kentucky Derby

Past Results (6)

Citizen Bull went on to win the Robert E. Lewis on February 1.

As of April 2025, two horses have won both the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and the Kentucky Derby:​

•     Ferdinand (1986): Ferdinand finished second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes before winning the Kentucky Derby later that year. ​
•     Kentucky Derby
•     I'll Have Another (2012): He won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at 43-1 odds, then went on to win the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby.

"He was fresh," jockey Martin Garcia said after the race and explained Citizen Bull's bobble at the break. "When I was warming him up, he just wanted to go and you could see that he was ready. When the gates opened it was like the ground broke underneath him. He just broke too fast. But right away he recovered."

Garcia added of the colt's performance in the later stages of the race: "When he made the lead, he kind of pinned his ears forward, and he was waiting around for company. He was just messing around; he wasn't very focused. He had one ear forward and one ear backwards, that means you have plenty of horse left."

Trainer (10)

Citizen Bull is trained by Bob Baffert, who returns to the Kentucky Derby after serving a multiple years suspension.

Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby six times, tying the record for most victories by a trainer with the late Hall of Famer Ben A. Jones . He won with the following entries:

•     Silver Charm (1997)
•     Real Quiet (1998)
•     War Emblem (2002)
•     American Pharoah (2015)
•     Justify (2018)
•     Authentic (2020)

Medina Spirit in 2021 would go on to be disqualified following a failed post-race drug test.

Rodriguez is Baffert's only other entry with slightly better odds at 12-1 as well as a more preferable post position at No. 4 

More Reason to Bet on Citizen Bull (6)

Baffert had jockey J.J. Hernandez work Citizen Bull on Wednesday at Santa Anita. Hernandez had worked him earlier this winter and told Baffert he noticed a fitter horse Wednesday.

“He said, man, he felt like a different horse,” Baffert said. “He said last time [he worked him], he was fat. Now he looks good. He’s such a good-feeling horse, he got a good strong work out of it and, more importantly, he’s very happy.”

From DRF:

On Wednesday at Santa Anita, the 2-year-old champion worked seven furlongs in 1:24.30 in preparation for the Kentucky Derby.

It was the third work in 11 days for Citizen Bull, who on April 13 went a half-mile in 47.60 seconds and on April 18 drilled six furlongs in 1:11.80. In the April 18 work, Citizen Bull started five lengths behind a workmate before finishing a length or so in front at the wire.

In Wednesday’s work, Citizen Bull went by himself and was timed by clocker Toby Turrell in splits of 23.60 seconds, 35.00, and 1:11.70 before galloping out a mile in 1:40.

Why Citizen Bull Might Not Win This Year's Kentucky Derby

Post Position (1)

On Saturday, Citizen Bull drew perhaps the worst post position at No. 1 (the outside).

The No. 1 post hasn’t produced a winner since Ferdinand in 1986.

“Once you get the 1 hole, I don’t have to give instructions on what (jockey Martin Garcia) is going to have to do,” Baffert said. “He’s going to have to leave there running, but the horse wants to do that anyway. But I would have liked to have been a little outside.”

Recent Performance (4)

While Citizen Bull did win the Robert B. Lewis, he followed up that performance with a 4th place finish at the Santa Anita.  That was his most recent race.

Jockey (5)

Martin Garcia has yet to win a Kentucky Derby.  He's entered multiple times, with his best finish being third place in 2015 aboard Dortmund, trained by Bob Baffert.

Early Odds to Win the 2025 Kentucky Derby

Rot     To Win The Kentucky Derby 2025     Moneyline
1     Citizen Bull         +1400
3     Sandman         +800
4     Journalism         +325
17     Rodriguez         +1200
28     East Avenue         +2400
29     Burnham Square         +1450
30     Sovereignty         +600
32     Coal Battle         +2100
34     Owen Almighty         +4000
45     Tiztastic         +1900
52     Luxor Cafe         +950
58     Grande         +1700
60     Final Gambit         -1900
63     American Promise         +1000
64     Flying Mohawk         +5000
65     Neoequos         +6000
66     Publisher         +2900
67     Chunk Of Gold         +3400
68     Admire Daytona         +3400