What Are the Payout Odds if Endlessly Wins This Year's Kentucky Derby?

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
May/03/2024

Should Endlessly go on to win this year's Kentucky Derby race, the payout would be $2800 for every $100 bet.

betuskentuckyderby24.png

Endlessly was sired by Oscar Performance out of the Langfuhr mare Dream Fuhrever . He is trained by Michael W. McCarthy.

Key Factors That Could Lead to Endlessly Winning This Year's Kentucky Derby

Trainer (6)

In City of Light's final start in January 2019, he delivered trainer Michael McCarthy a dominant, runaway victory over 2018 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Accelerate in the $9 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes.

McCarthy earned his first career Triple Crown race win in the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes with Rombauer on May 15, 2021. Rombauer had previously won the El Camino Real Derby, then skipped the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. That fall, McCarthy picked up his second winner at the Breeders’ Cup when Ce Ce upset heavily favored Gamine in the Filly and Mare Sprint at Del Mar.

McCarthy does not have a Kentucky Derby win.

Past Performance (6)

He's had wins, but there is a catch.  Scroll down to "The Dirt" to read more.

Jockey (5)

Umberto Rispoli carved out a successful riding career before moving full-time to America 4 1/2 years ago. He won 12 Grade 1 and Group 1 races in five countries on three continents. A 44-time graded-stakes victor in the U.S., Rispoli made his Derby debut three years ago riding Brooklyn Strong to a 14th-place finish.

Why Endlessly Might Not Win This Year's Kentucky Derby

Not The Race His Trainer Wanted (3)

McCarthy was actually trying to avoid racing his best young horse in this year's Kentucky Derby.  But his 92-year-old owner demanded otherwise.

McCarthy wanted to run Endlessly in the $600,000, Grade 2 American Turf on Derby Day.

“He has an exceptional turf record and obviously is undefeated on the synthetic,” McCarthy said. “If I felt he was as good on the dirt I probably would have tried it by now.”

The Dirt (1)

Endlessly has never raced on dirt. The first four races of Endlessly’s career came on turf, and he won three of them. His last two races have come on synthetic surfaces, winning both.

Post Position (4)

Nyquist is the most recent winner (2016) with Simplification finishing in the top 5 in 2022.  Otherwise, this starting position hasn't yielded a whole lot of success in Kentucky Derby history.

street-sense.png

From Synthetic to Dirt

"Street Sense’s dramatic, decisive victory in the 2007 Kentucky Derby restructured a lot of perceptions about winning the Run for the Roses. Not only could a Breeders'Cup Juvenile winner return the following spring to capture the first leg of the Triple Crown, but he could make his final prep for Churchill Downs' dirt track on a synthetic one." - Source: Trainer Magazine

Odds to Win the 2024 Kentucky Derby

After Post Position Draw
1     Dornoch         +2500
2     Sierra Leone         +275
3     Mystik Dan         +2400
4     Catching Freedom         +900
5     Catalytic         +4000
6     Just Steel         +2500
7     Honor Marie         +1600
8     Just a Touch         +1100
10     TO Password         +4000
11     Forever Young         +800
12     Track Phantom         +2800
13     West Saratoga         +6000
14     Endlessly         +2800
15     Domestic Product         +2700
16     Grand Mo the First         +5000
17     Fierceness         +250
18     Stronghold         +2000
19     Resilience         +2400
20     Society Man         +4000
21     AE/21 Epic Ride         +5000

Early

1     Fierceness         +275
3     Track Phantom         +2000
4     Dornoch         +2000
5     Sierra Leone         +325
6     Hades         +4000
7     Mystik Dan         +2000
11     Epic Ride         +5000
13     Catching Freedom         +1000
15     Honor Marie         +2000
17     Domestic Product         +2200
19     Just Steel         +2500
20     Resilience         +2000
29     Stronghold         +2000
30     Just A Touch         +1700
34     Forever Young         +800
38     Encino         +2800
43     Endlessly         +2500
49     Common Defense         +6600
50     West Saratoga         +6600
51     T O Password         +7500
52     Catalytic         +6000
53     Society Man         +6600
54     Grand Mo The First         +7500

danshapiro.png

Horse Racing News

HORSES Saratoga Race Course Betting 2024 Overview

Just as it’s May at Churchill Downs, if it’s summer, it’s Saratoga. Thought to be older (opened in 1863) than any sporting venue in North America, Saratoga is set to begin its 40-day season this Thursday (July 11th).

2024 Belmont Stakes Betting Odds

If you’re hoping to use historical trends and data to pick a winner for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, you're out of luck. This year, everything about the final leg of the Triple Crown is different.

2024 Preakness Morning Odds

Mystik Dan was still coming in as the 5-2 favorite with Catching Freedom and Imagination each at 6-1 odds.

Syndicate