What Are the Payout Odds if Just a Touch Wins This Year's Kentucky Derby?

Just a Touch pays 11-1 odds of winning this year's Kentucky Derby.   That would be a $1100 payout on a $100 bet.

Just a Touch was sired by Justify out of the Tapit mare Touching Beauty.

Key Factors That Could Lead to Just a Touch Winning This Year's Kentucky Derby

Past Performance (6)

Just a Touch does not have a graded stakes win but the two races he started - The Gotham Stakes and Blue Grass - he finished 2nd in both.

In the Blue Grass Stakes, Just a Touch finished only behind this Kentucky Derby's co-favorite, Sierra Leone.

Post Position (8)

Last year, Mage became the third horse to win from the eighth post in the new millennium, joining Barbaro (2006) and Mine That Bird (2009). Tacitus added a third-place finish at the spot in 2019. 

Trainer (8)

In 2021, Cox raced in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve for the first time. He entered Mandaloun and Essential Quality, the favorite. Both raced well, finishing second and fourth, respectively. Five weeks later, Essential Quality returned to win the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, giving Cox his first win in a Triple Crown race.

Cox added a Kentucky Derby win with Mandaloun after Medina Spirit from first place in the 2021 Kentucky Derby based on the horse testing positive for betamethasone on raceday.

Jockey (8)

Florent Géroux won in 2021 after the Medina Spirit disqualification.

More Reason to Bet on Just a Touch (9)

Of all the horses competing in this year's Kentucky Derby, Just a Touch is the only horse to have recorded an average Speed Score in the triple digits.

The odds-on favorite, Fierceness, does have the highest single race Speed Score (110), but it is Just a Touch who has averaged 100 for his career, over a point more than the next closest competitor Sierra Leone (98.3) and three points higher than Fierceness (97).

Why Just a Touch Might Not Win This Year's Kentucky Derby

No Graded Win (4)

He's only started in two graded races and failed to win both, though he finished a strong second.

Just a Touch recorded a 103 Equibase Speed Score in his first non-graded race, but hasn't improved on that number since.

Odds to Win the 2024 Kentucky Derby

After Post Position Draw
1     Dornoch         +2000
2     Sierra Leone         +300
3     Mystik Dan         +2200
4     Catching Freedom         +900
5     Catalytic         +4000
6     Just Steel         +2500
7     Honor Marie         +1600
8     Just a Touch         +1100
10     TO Password         +3500
11     Forever Young         +800
12     Track Phantom         +2700
13     West Saratoga         +4500
14     Endlessly         +2600
15     Domestic Product         +2500
16     Grand Mo the First         +5000
17     Fierceness         +275
18     Stronghold         +2000
19     Resilience         +2400
20     Society Man         +4000
21     AE/21 Epic Ride         +5000

Early

1     Fierceness         +275
3     Track Phantom         +2000
4     Dornoch         +2000
5     Sierra Leone         +325
6     Hades         +4000
7     Mystik Dan         +2000
11     Epic Ride         +5000
13     Catching Freedom         +1000
15     Honor Marie         +2000
17     Domestic Product         +2200
19     Just Steel         +2500
20     Resilience         +2000
29     Stronghold         +2000
30     Just A Touch         +1700
34     Forever Young         +800
38     Encino         +2800
43     Endlessly         +2500
49     Common Defense         +6600
50     West Saratoga         +6600
51     T O Password         +7500
52     Catalytic         +6000
53     Society Man         +6600
54     Grand Mo The First         +7500