How to Handicap NBA Games
Want to win betting on the NBA? An deep understanding of how lines originate and following the experts can help ensure a profitable season, keeping in mind you are going to have some bad days here and there. Patience and steadfastness are vital traits for all sports bettors.
Follow the Top NBA Handicappers
Just because someone says they have a 50-0 record with their NBA picks doesn't mean they actually do. Notorious "scamdicappers", as we like to call them, were long known to give out plays on different sides of the same game to different people. Hence, they can never lose.
If you are looking for transparency, be sure to check out the G911 Sports Hub.
Cappers here are documented. Their plays are posted for the whole world to see. Records appear within the leaderboard for each sport.
Even the best handicappers are going to go through a rough patch or two, so try to get a consensus play as opposed to just relying on a single top performer.
As of November 22, 2023, the top NBA cappers included Kyle Parker, Ben Burns, Chip Chirimbes, James Anderson and Hollywood Sports. Parker and Burns were both on the Toronto Raptors, thus improving the likelihood that Toronto were to cover against the Indiana Pacers by +3.5 points. I will say that the Pacers played for a hard fought come-from-behind win on the road in Atlanta the night before.
Understanding Numbers
Using the Pacers-Raptors game mentioned above, that 3.5 number wasn't just pulled out of a hat. It's based on stats and analytics.
The Pacers have beaten Toronto in four of their last five games. That would certainly appear on the surface to give Indiana an edge.
Dig deeper and we find that the Raptors only lost by four points their last game and beat the Pacers in the prior meeting.
The folks who come up with the odds know how each player pits up against the other (their defender) on average.
Handicapping NBA games is really no different than coming up with a daily or weekly financial budget. You know the money that is supposed to come in and you'll adjust spending accordingly. This is mostly consistent and, as such, allows individuals and companies to come up with an annual budget.
Pascal Siakam of the Raptors should score in the neighborhood of 21.5 points against the Pacers while Indian's Tyrese Haliburton should score around 23.5. These numbers are pretty much down to a science and based on historic stats. Oddsmakers may make some minor adjustments based on, among other things, injuries, rest and fatigue, home court advantage. Player X may be prone to low output with back-to-back games for example.
Understand Line Movement and Opinions
If a team is seeing 70% on the spread as a -5 favorite and oddsmakers bring that number down to -3, thus encouraging even more action on that particular team, the chances are good they believe the dog is going to cover. This could be based on sharp action coming in on the dog early on or at any point leading up to the game.
Parlays Are Dumb
The number of times we've offered four picks on any given day and all four have come through are rare to say the least. Parlays do not come through unless all your teams win. The best cappers typically do not hit above 65% in any given season. A 65% winning record ensures you'll be realizing a profit, but if it's contingent upon multiple picks all having to win in a given day, trust us here, that 65% will become 15% real quickly. The improved parlay payout odds don't mean anything.
Yeah, you can win the lottery, but probably won't.
DraftKings doesn't promote same game parlays because they want you to beat them the same way you don't advertise how many STDs you've contracted as a means of boosting sexual virility with multiple partners.
Never Bet When You Are Having a Particularly Bad Day
Car broke down this morning? Had to finally put Fido to sleep after 17 happy years on this planet? Just found out your mother-in-law is coming to town and she'll be staying at your place for a month?
Do not bet on these days. You will NOT win.
It's not that your beloved Celtics are going to lose just because YOU placed a bet on them.
It's in the stars. Your negative energy will be drawn to losers like a magnet. If the Celtics are destined to lose that night, you are destined to place a bet on them.
Looking for that perfect record?
Take it from us. We're 0-100 on days when NOTHING goes right. That's your perfect record right there.
- Nagesh Rath, Gambling911.com
