Minnesota Rep Ilhan Omar Chances of Being Federally Charged Low at Prediction Markets

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Minnesota Rep Ilhan Omar Chances of Being Federally Charged Low at Prediction Markets

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Gambling911.com) - Rep. Ilhan Omar's Washington, D.C., home was the target of a raid early Monday morning by ICE's investigations unit.

Sources say the investigation centers on Omar's immigration paperwork. The documents in question date back to Omar's childhood, involving paperwork completed by her late father when she was a child.  

If Omar was 17 when she became a naturalized U.S. citizen in 2000, prosecutors would generally need evidence that she knowingly participated in fraud or made material false statements herself. A civil citizenship challenge is a separate possibility, but the government would still have a demanding burden of proof.

Omar fled war-ravaged Somalia as a teenager and later became a U.S. citizen.   Republicans have long accused Omar of immigration and marriage fraud, raising questions about whether her U.S. citizenship could be revoked.  Republicans claim Omar married Ahmed Nur Said Elmi, a British citizen, in 2009 despite allegedly being biologically related to him.

No publicly established evidence has demonstrated that Omar married her brother or obtained citizenship fraudulently. Omar has repeatedly denied the allegations.

Traders at Polymarket do not believe anything will come of this.  With volume still just shy of $17,000, traders are giving her a 10 percent chance of being federally charged by year's end. 

Omar's office said in a statement that Omar had "done nothing wrong" and called the raid an "outrageous abuse of power and an unprecedented escalation in the weaponization of federal law enforcement to target political enemies."  

Omar, a Minnesota Democrat, posted Monday on social media, "I'm ok," adding "I will not be silenced."

"Make no mistake: this is an attempt to target political enemies and weaponize federal law enforcement," Omar wrote. "For ten years, Trump has targeted me with baseless lies and smear campaigns. This is just the latest escalation in his campaign of political intimidation."

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