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OAKLAND PARK, Fla. (Gambling911.com) - Republican Ashley Moody remained a -1000 "lock" to win the Florida Senate race with BetOnline now offering Margin of Victory odds on Moody at a more generous price paying closer to even odds. Her Margin of Victory was listed at 6.5%.
This One Was Getting a Little Closer for Nixon
Angie Nixon promised a payout of $600 for every $100 bet should she upset Moody.
Some reasons why the Nixon camp might be feeling a bit more optimistic: Florida has already recorded more than 3.15 million ballots cast ahead of the November 3 midterm elections and registered Democrats have been competitive with registered Republicans in ballots returned so far, even though Republicans hold a substantial statewide voter-registration advantage. We should note that Republicans tend to vote 37% vs. 27% for Democrats on Election Day in Florida. But Democrats have voted by mail 46% vs. 29% for Republicans with mail-in votes still coming in up to Election Day.
574,105 votes have been cast by "no party affiliation" voters and it is unknown which way they will lean in this race. President Donald Trump's approval rating among independent voters ranges between 21% and 44% depending on the poll ahead of the 2026 midterms, suggesting Nixon could potentially benefit from independent voters.
Likewise, her odds have gotten shorter in recent days. She had previously been listed at +750, so the +600 number represents a 1.5 point improvement for Nixon.
According to a Newsweek tracking report published on October 27, 2026, Trump's overall approval rating in Florida is underwater at -17 net points. Consult local election polling reports to verify detailed demographic breakdowns of independent voter sentiment across the state. This might also potentially help Nixon, assuming the voting among registered Republicans and Democrats remains competitive.
Ballots already cast, by party registration
Official cumulative returns, compiled October 27, 2026, at 8:07 a.m. Eastern
| Registered affiliation | Mail ballots | In-person early | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 529,943 | 727,255 | 1,257,198 |
| Democrat | 643,143 | 601,289 | 1,244,432 |
| No party affiliation | 283,146 | 290,959 | 574,105 |
| Other parties | 36,055 | 40,895 | 76,950 |
| Total | 1,492,287 | 1,660,398 | 3,152,685 |
A Florida State University analysis of voter records found the following for the 2022 general election:
Voting method Republicans Democrats
Election Day 37% 27%
Early in person 34% 27%
Vote by mail 29% 46%
9 Senate Odds Moves Worth Watching
While things continue to appear optimistic for the Democratic Party ahead of Tuesday's midterms, the betting action is beginning to paint a different picture for the Senate.
With oddsmaker BetOnline.ag, Republican candidates’ odds have shortened up considerably in Maine and Michigan, plus to a lesser extent in Alaska, Iowa, Texas and Nebraska.
On the other side of the ledger, there is some speculative support for what would be huge upsets in deep-red Florida and South Carolina.
However, it's important to note that the favorite hasn’t changed in any Senate race for weeks. If the current favorite wins in each of the 35 races, the Democrats will win 52-48.
You can see odds and margins of victory for all of the 2026 Senate midterm races at BetOnline Here
ALASKA
Peltola (D) -325
Sullivan (R) +250 (Was +275)
FLORIDA
Moody (R) -1000
Nixon (D) +600 (Was +750)
IOWA
Hinson (R) -165 (Was -150)
Turek (D) +135
MAINE
Jackson (D) -155
Collins (R) +125 (Was +145)
MICHIGAN
El-Sayed (D) -225
Rogers (R) +185 (Was +220)
NEBRASKA
Ricketts (R) -325 (Was -300)
Osborn (I) +250
SOUTH CAROLINA
Graham (R) -400
Andrews (D) +300 (Was +350)
TEXAS
Talarico (D) -180
Paxton (R) +150 (Was +160)
OHIO
Sherrod Brown (D) -250
Jon Husted (R) +185 (was +200)
Odds as of October 20
| State | Candidate | Odds | Probability |
| Alabama | Barry Moore (R) | -5000 | 98% |
| Everett Weiss (D) | +1600 | 2% | |
| Moore Margin of Victory | O/U 19.5% | ||
| Alaska | Dan Sullivan (R) | +250 | 24% |
| Mary Peltola (D) | -325 | 76% | |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton (R) | -2500 | 96% |
| Hallie Schoffner (D) | +1200 | 4% | |
| Cotton Margin of Victory | O/U 15.5% | ||
| Colorado | Mark Baisley (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| John Hickenlooper (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Hickenlooper Margin of Victory | O/U 22.5% | ||
| Delaware | Michael Katz (R) | +4000 | 1% |
| Chris Coons (D) | -20000 | 99% | |
| Coons Margin of Victory | O/U 28.5% | ||
| Florida (Special) | Ashley Moody (R) | -1600 | 94% |
| Angie Nixon (D) | +800 | 6% | |
| Moody Margin of Victory | O/U 7.5% | ||
| Georgia | Mike Collins (R) | +1600 | 2% |
| Jon Ossoff (D) | -5000 | 98% | |
| Ossoff Margin of Victory | O/U 9.5% | ||
| Idaho | Jim Risch (R) | -1800 | 95% |
| Todd Achilles (I) | +900 | 4% | |
| David Roth (D) | +10000 | 1% | |
| Risch Margin of Victory | O/U 18.5% | ||
| Illinois | Don Tracy (R) | +4000 | 1% |
| Juliana Stratton (D) | -20000 | 99% | |
| Stratton Margin of Victory | O/U 22.5% | ||
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) | -140 | 58% |
| Josh Turek (D) | +110 | 42% | |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall (R) | -180 | 64% |
| Adam Hamilton (D) | +150 | 36% | |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr (R) | -4000 | 98% |
| Charles Booker (D) | +1500 | 2% | |
| Barr Margin of Victory | O/U 20.5% | ||
| Louisiana | Julia Letlow (R) | -4000 | 98% |
| Jamie Davis (D) | +1500 | 2% | |
| Maine | Susan Collins (R) | +145 | 36% |
| Troy Jackson (D) | -175 | 64% | |
| Massachusetts | John Deaton (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Ed Markey (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Markey Margin of Victory | O/U 32.5% | ||
| Michigan | Mike Rogers (R) | +215 | 27% |
| Abdul El-Sayed (M) | -275 | 73% | |
| Minnesota | Michele Tafoya (R) | +700 | 7% |
| Peggy Flanagan (D) | -1400 | 93% | |
| Flanagan Margin of Victory | O/U 6.5% | ||
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | -1000 | 91% |
| Scott Colom (D) | +600 | 9% | |
| Hyde-Smith Margin of Victory | O/U 7.5% | ||
| Montana | Kurt Alme (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Seth Bodnar (I) | +1000 | 4% | |
| Alani Bankhead (D) | +5000 | 1% | |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) | -300 | 75% |
| Dan Osborn (I) | +240 | 25% | |
| New Hampshire | John Sununu (R) | +700 | 7% |
| Chris Pappas (D) | -1400 | 93% | |
| Pappas Margin of Victory | O/U 8.5% | ||
| New Jersey | Justin Murphy (R) | +1800 | 1% |
| Cory Booker (D) | -7500 | 99% | |
| Booker Margin of Victory | O/U 24.5% | ||
| New Mexico | Larry Marker (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Ben Ray Lujan (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Lujan Margin of Victory | O/U 20.5% | ||
| North Carolina | Michael Whatley (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Roy Cooper (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Ohio (Special) | Jon Husted (R) | +185 | 31% |
| Sherrod Brown (D) | -225 | 69% | |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Hern (R) | -5000 | 98% |
| N'kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) | +1600 | 2% | |
| Hern Margin of Victory | O/U 23.5% | ||
| Oregon | David Brock Smith (R) | +1600 | 2% |
| Jeff Merkley (D) | -5000 | 98% | |
| Merkley Margin of Victory | O/U 23.5% | ||
| Rhode Island | Raymond McKay (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Jack Reed (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Reed Margin of Victory | O/U 30.5% | ||
| South Carolina | Darline Graham (R) | -600 | 86% |
| Annie Andrews (D) | +400 | 14% | |
| Graham Margin of Victory | O/U 4.5% | ||
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Brian Bengs (I) | +1000 | 5% | |
| Rounds Margin of Victory | O/U 10.5% | ||
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| Marquita Bradshaw (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Hagerty Margin of Victory | O/U 21.5% | ||
| Texas | Ken Paxton (R) | +155 | 35% |
| James Talarico (D) | -185 | 65% | |
| Virginia | Bert Mizusawa (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Mark Warner (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Warner Margin of Victory | O/U 21.5% | ||
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Capito Margin of Victory | O/U 32.5% | ||
| Wyoming | Harriet Hageman (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| James W. Byrd (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Hageman Margin of Victory | O/U 33.5% |
- T C Jackson, Gambling911.com
