Milwaukee Bucks Betting Tips and Trends
The Milwaukee Bucks ranked No. 9 on Sagarin's Ratings and owned a 25-12 record Straight Up.
January 11
Boston is 5-1 Straight Up against the Bucks in the last six meetings. The Bucks have lost four of their last five overall. Boston has won 8 of their last 10.
Milwaukee is looking to avoid its six straight failed cover.
January 8
This one opened at Bucks -10.5 and dropped to -8. There is certainly some value in betting the Bucks at -8 as opposed to -10.5. The Jazz are playing better on the road. They just beat Philadelphia but the Sixers were without their big star Joel Embiid for that one. Utah had only beaten teams with losing records on the road while losing by 8 or more against those teams with winning records.
The Bucks beat Utah by 26 points the last time they hosted the Jazz in last season.
Milwaukee has failed to cover in five straight games once this season and are on the verge of doing so again with this one.
Utah is playing well lately, with a 7-2 record straight up and 7-2-0 record Against The Spread. Milwaukee though is back home finally after an excruciating seven road games over their last eight.
We can't explain the home loss to the Pacers but the prior six straight home games for the Bucks featured three double digit wins.
January 6
The Milwaukee Bucks move from a -5.5 to -7.5 favorite in Houston with a pretty significant overlay as our number comes in at Milwaukee 0.17 or a PICK'EM.
The Bucks are 7-3 Straight Up in this series over the last ten. They are 5-5 Against The Spread using the current 7.5 number. They are 1-4 Against The Spread in Houston using the current number.
From Winners and Whiners:
"The Rockets are one of the most pleasant surprises of the season, primarily thanks to their defense. However, this is a tough matchup for Houston, as the Bucks are one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the NBA and love to play at a fast pace. The Rockets will struggle to slow the Bucks down, especially on the second night of a back-to-back set, so I will lay 5.5 points with Milwaukee.
"Back in December, the Bucks outrebounded the Rockets 46-31 while posting 16 offensive boards. Damian Lillard tortured Houston for 39 points and 11 assists, and Giannis Antetokounmpo notched a 26-point, 17-rebound double-double. Milwaukee’s second unit scored just 16 points, but Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton combined for a plus-19 net rating off the bench."
January 1
Milwaukee dropped what should have been an easy one against Indiana New Years Day night. They get another shot at them - and perhaps some revenge - Wednesday night.
The Pacers have actually had their way with Milwaukee of late, going 4-2 in the last six meetings.
Milwaukee has won eight of their last ten overall. They have only lost two consecutive games once this season.
December 22
The Bucks face off against a New York Knicks team on Saturday that they have beaten in the last eight meetings. Five of those were by double digits and we anticipate the line on this game to be in the area of Bucks -3.
The Bucks come in 3rd on the ESPN Power Rankings this week.
"Don't look now, but Damian Lillard is heating up. Lillard, who had a slow start, said he has found his groove after scoring 30 points in back-to-back games over the weekend and reached a season-high 40 points against the Spurs on Tuesday. He has led the Bucks to five straight wins in which they've scored at least 125 points, and since the start of December, Lillard is averaging 26.3 points and 7.7 assists on 46.3% shooting (44.3% from 3). The Bucks wrap up their homestand Thursday against the Magic before heading to New York for a weeklong stay, which includes a Christmas Day matchup with the Knicks." -- Jamal Collier
November 18
The Bucks host the Mavs Saturday night following a game in Charlotte just under 24 hours before.
Milwaukee manhandled the Hornets 130-99.
The Mavericks will be well rested ahead of this game.
As noted below, the Milwaukee typically was not affected by back-to-back night play last season. They have been mostly playing games close prior to the blowouts in Toronto and Charlotte, unless this team is starting to turn a page.
The line on this game should be Bucks 3.94 or -4, which is where it opened but it dropped to -2.
Bucks have gone 4-2 in the last six games versus Dallas but two of those wins were by 3 or fewer points.
Milwaukee is now 3-8-1 Against The Spread with the cover against Charlotte.
Dallas is 9-3 Straight Up and 7-5 Against The Spread entering this game. The Mavs were scheduled to host Sacramento the next night (Sunday). They covered three of their last four games ahead of playing in Milwaukee.
November 17
Coming into this game, Milwaukee was just 2-8-1 Against The Spread.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is now probable to play in Charlotte.
The Bucks surprised with a nice cover in Toronto with a very fluid line that dropped from Bucks -5 to -1.
Against Charlotte, one of the worst teams according to Sagarin, Milwaukee should come in at 6.29. Instead, we get a number of -9.5 and an overlay of 3 points.
This one opened at -9.5 and at one point dipped all the way down to 7.
The Bucks were getting 80% of the action at that low 7 number. With the spread back up at 9, action became balanced.
Charlotte is 3-7 Straight Up and 5-5 Against The Spread.
Bucks host the Mavericks the next night (Saturday). Last year in back-to-back night games, the Bucks did not seem to be fazed.
Hot Dogs?
Over the past week, +7 or greater dogs have gone 5-10 Against The Spread.
November 17
The Bucks number came in at 93.30.
They were among the favorites to win the NBA Championship with a payout of $450 on a $100 bet (tied with Denver for second shortest odds).
Boston Celtics +375
Denver Nuggets +450
Milwaukee Bucks +450
Phoenix Suns +650
Los Angeles Lakers +1800
Golden State Warriors +1200
Miami Heat +4000
Los Angeles Clippers +1800
Philadelphia 76ers +1400
Memphis Grizzlies +8000
Milwaukee Bucks
11/6 vs. Pistons – Milwaukee 11.59, actual line –12, -12.5, line is on the money. Pistons cover with two point loss.
11/7 at. Pacers (2nd of a back to back game – played night before) - Milwaukee 0.09, actual line Indiana +4 to PICK’EM/-1, Milwaukee overlay of 4 to on the money. Pacers win by 2 points and cover. Action had moved to 60% Pacers with the line at 1. It had been balanced.
11/10 at Orlando – Milwaukee 1.58, actual line is Bucks –4.5 to –2. Overlay of 3 to on the money. Orlando win by a lot. Action was balanced.
11/12 vs. Bulls – Milwaukee 8.68, actual line is Bucks –8 to 9.5. This one was on the money. Bucks win by 9. Bulls mostly covered as the line was primarily on the 9.5 and 9 (push).
11/14 at Raptors – Milwaukee 2.68, actual line Milwaukee –5.5 to –1. This suggested an overlay of 3 points dropping to an underlay of 1 point. Milwaukee won big by 16 points. Action was showing as balanced when this line was coming down so dramatically.
