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There is an argument to be had for betting either the Over or the Under for Tuesday's Athletics vs. Nationals game. The total has moved from 8 to 8.5 with greater than 80% of the action on the Over.
Reasons to Bet the Under
ESPN writes of this matchup in regard to the Nats likely having a disadvantage when it comes to hitting:
Much has been made of Luis Severino's home 6.34 ERA compared to his 3.03 road mark. The truth is his ERA estimators at home are better than his road levels. On Tuesday, Severino will take the hill at Nationals Park. This recommendation isn't because Severino is on the road, but rather because it's a favorable matchup facing a strikeout-prone lineup.
Severino has only allowed 6 hits in 42 at bats versus these Nationals. There's only been one RBI and zero home runs permitted.
Severino allowed one run with six strikeouts over five innings in a win over the Mariners on Tuesday, and two runs in his prior start versus the Astros.
Reasons to Bet the Over
Seven of the last ten in this series have gone Over the current total of 8.5. The A's have scored five or more runs in seven of their last ten games overall.
Washington has permitted seven or more runs in their last five games overall.
There there is this from The Action Network:
Late in the MLB season, games played in hitter-friendly or high-variance environments — such as in Colorado, Arizona, and Washington — tend to go over the total when the closing line is modest (≤10.5), which appears to be the situation in tonight's matchup between the Athletics and Nationals.
These markets often underestimate run production during the final stretch of the season due to weather conditions (e.g., dry heat in AZ/CO, humid air in DC) and expanded rosters increasing bullpen volatility.
Public perception around fatigue or playoff pressure may further depress totals.
This creates value when betting overs in August to October for these specific home teams, particularly during regular season games.
Top handicappers were overwhelmingly on the Over here.
They were also on the Athletics. Despite heavy lopsided action on the A's, we're not seeing the -125 for Washington drop much.
The Verdict
Take the Over 8.5 here as well as the Athletics +113
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
