Bet the Padres vs. Marlins Series July 21-23

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
Jul/20/2025

The Padres vs. Marlins series begins Monday July 21 with a 53-45 San Diego team playing against a Miami club whose 46-51 record does not reflect their solid play of late.  Miami is very much playing like an above .500 team in recent weeks. 

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Pay Per Head Baseball Betting Markets

These baseball betting markets are courtesy of Pay Per Head gambling software platform AcePerHead.

MLB - GAME LINES
MLB - 1ST 5 FULL INNINGS
MLB - 3 INNINGS LINE
MLB - 7 INNINGS LINE
MLB - 1ST 5 INN WINNER (3-WAY)
MLB - 1ST INNING WINNER (3 WAY)
MLB - TEAM TOTALS
MLB - 1ST HALF TEAM TOTALS
MLB - ALTERNATE RUNLINES & TOTALS
MLB - TEAM WITH THE HIGHEST SCORING INNING
MLB - DOUBLE RESULT
MLB - WINNING MARGIN
MLB - HOME RUN MARKET
MLB - SCORE 1ST INNING
MLB - INNINGS PROPS
MLB - 1ST INNING EXACT HITS
MLB - PLAYER TO HIT A HOME RUN
MLB - TEAM TO SCORE 1ST
MLB - TEAM TO SCORE FIRST WINS THE GAME
MLB - TOTAL HITS
MLB - TOTAL RUNS ODD/EVEN
MLB - HITS +RUNS +ERRORS
MLB - 2025 MLB WORLD SERIES WINNER
MLB - 2025 NATIONAL LEAGUE WINNER
MLB - 2025 AMERICAN LEAGUE WINNER

Power Rankings 

These Power Rankings Courtesy of ESPN

San Diego Padres

Record: 52-44 | Projected final record: 87-75

Division title odds: 4.4% | Playoff odds: 48.6% | Championship odds: 1.5%

What makes them a potential contender: For all their injuries and underperformers, the Padres entered the All-Star break holding the third NL wild-card spot, and were 5½ games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Jackson Merrill's production has dipped and he has made two trips to the IL, Opening Day starter Michael King has been sidelined since mid-May, and Dylan Cease's 4.88 ERA is a career worst. But the Padres at least win the games they're supposed to, going 31-18 at home and 18-4 against the bottom five teams in baseball in terms of winning percentage. They also sport one of the league's best and deepest bullpens.

What to expect from here: General manager A.J. Preller is one of the game's most aggressive at his craft, and how he bolsters via trade an offense that ranks in the bottom eight in runs per game, wOBA and home runs will play a big part in the Padres' postseason fate. Getting back a healthy King and getting Cease and recently activated Yu Darvish on track before the toughest and most critical intradivisional portion of their schedule in mid-August will also prove important.

Miami Marlins

Record: 44-51 | Projected final record: 72-90

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.2% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: Not much in South Florida has gone quite according to plan. Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins' expected ace and premium midseason trade chip, ranks last among pitchers with minus-1.6 WAR. Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby haven't progressed as smoothly as hoped. The rotation has struggled to consistently find options for the No. 4 and 5 slots, and the Marlins' 5.02 first-half ERA was third worst in baseball. But, just as unexpected, the offense has shown a spark over the past month. Since June 9, only eight teams scored more runs, led by All-Star Kyle Stowers (.316/.404/.663 rates and nine home runs) and with solid production from Otto Lopez and rookie Agustin Ramirez.

What to expect from here: With the youngest roster in baseball, the Marlins will continue to feature their young stars. In addition to the names above, Eury Perez is quickly recapturing his pre-Tommy John surgery buzz as one of the game's most promising starters. Alcantara's trade value has plummeted, but he'll still probably be moved for prospects, potentially along with Anthony Bender, Edward Cabrera or Jesus Sanchez.

Padres vs. Marlins Pitching

We only had a scheduled start for both the Padres and Marlins for Wednesday's game as of Sunday morning when this went to press.

Miami Marlins career statistics vs. Dylan Cease offer a limited sampling of just 25 at bats, however, Cease has allowed just three hits and one RBI. 

The Marlins could have issues on Wednesday if history is any indication. 

San Diego Padres career statistics vs. Sandy Alcantara are .338 with 12 RBIs in 68 appearances. 

Xander Bogaerts is 5-for-11 with two RBIs and a homer against Alcantara, who allowed four runs in six innings and got a no-decision in the Marlins’ 8-7 victory over the Royals his most recent start. 

Alcantara allowed nine hits and six runs with two walks and four strikeouts over five innings in a loss to the Reds before that. 

San Diego is 4-2 in their most recent appearances versus Miami. 

- Tyrone Black, Gambling911.com 

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