MLB Betting Analysis - September 12, 2025
Gambling911.com looks at potential value in MLB betting lines and totals based on a number of factors for games played Friday September 12, 2025.
Friday September 12
Here are your hot streaking MLB teams at the moment:
- Boston Red Sox
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Cleveland Guardians
- Chicago White Sox
- Texas Rangers
- Philadelphia Phillies
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Milwaukee Brewers
- San Francisco Giants
- Cincinnati Reds
Teams to avoid at the moment that were looking decent at one point:
- Minnesota Twins
- Kansas City Royals
- Houston Astros
- Athletics
- Seattle Mariners
- New York Mets
- Miami Marlins
- Milwaukee Brewers
- LA Dodgers
- San Diego Padres
Series Edge
- Yankees vs. Red Sox (Red Sox 8-1)
- White Sox vs. Guardians (Guardians 8-2)
Royals @ Phillies
A few top cappers are on the Over here. 93% of the betting public that's on this total agree, and the number has not moved off the 9.
Philadelphia Phillies career statistics vs. Michael Lorenzen is 16-for-59 (.271)
Kansas City Royals career statistics vs. Walker Buehler is just 12-for-55 (.218)
Lorenzen gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings Sunday in a loss to the Twins.
The last six in this series have gone Over this total.
Thursday September 11
Here are your hot streaking MLB teams at the moment:
- Boston Red Sox
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Cleveland Guardians
- Chicago White Sox
- Texas Rangers
- Philadelphia Phillies
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Milwaukee Brewers
- San Francisco Giants
- Cincinnati Reds
Teams to avoid at the moment that were looking decent at one point:
- Minnesota Twins
- Kansas City Royals
- Houston Astros
- Athletics
- Seattle Mariners
- New York Mets
- Miami Marlins
- Milwaukee Brewers
- LA Dodgers
- San Diego Padres
Series Edge
- Astros vs. Blue Jays (Astros edge 6-1)
- Tigers vs. Yankees (Tigers edge 6-1)
Royals @ Guardians
From ESPN:
Gavin Williams yielded just one run over seven innings in each of his last two outings, dropping his ERA since the break to 2.19 to go along with a 1.05 WHIP and 51 strikeouts in 53 innings. Williams might not rack up his usual punchouts when the Cleveland Guardians host the Kansas City Royals, but he'll face the lineup with the eighth-lowest wOBA facing right-handers this season.
Williams has allowed just 19 hits on 91 at bats vs. these Royals.
Five of the last ten have stayed Under the current total of 7.5.
Rays vs. White Sox
From ESPN:
"Ian Seymour's ERA over his last three games is 1.29 with a 1.00 WHIP. He fanned an impressive 21 batters with just four walks over that 14-inning span. It should be noted that nine runs were scored when Seymour was on the hill over this stretch, but only two were earned. On the surface, Seymour appears to be a solid streamer with the Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Chicago White Sox. Samples against left-handed pitching can be misleading, but extremes in small samples can be telling, and the White Sox have struck out only 15.2% of the time against southpaws over the last month, resulting in an above-average wOBA. Even on an abbreviated slate, it's best to consider other streaming options before trusting Seymour."
Wednesday September 10
Here are your hot streaking MLB teams at the moment:
- New York Yankees
- Boston Red Sox
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Cleveland Guardians
- Chicago White Sox
- Texas Rangers
Philadelphia Phillies- St. Louis Cardinals
- Milwaukee Brewers
- San Francisco Giants
Teams to avoid at the moment that were looking decent at one point:
- Minnesota Twins
- Kansas City Royals
- Houston Astros
- Athletics
- Seattle Mariners
- New York Mets
- Miami Marlins
- LA Dodgers
- San Diego Padres
Series Edge
- New York Mets (8-2 vs. Phillies)
- Boston Red Sox (5-1 vs. Athletics)
- Minnesota Twins (8-2 vs. Angels)
Angels vs. Twins
From ESPN:
Jose Soriano was enjoying a solid second half before being hit hard by the Athletics in his last outing. Before that, he posted a 3.17 ERA and 1.03 WHIP since the break, but he surrendered eight runs in 2 1/3 innings in his last outing. Soriano is in a favorable spot to rebound when the Los Angeles Angels host the Minnesota Twins, sporting the lineup with the sixth-lowest wOBA and sixth-highest strikeout rate versus right-handers over the past month.
Six of the last ten games of this series have resulted in double digit runs being scored and the Twins are 8-2, so probably avoid a play on the Angels this day.
Tigers vs. Yankees
From ESPN:
"Jack Flaherty has been inconsistent of late. Over his past six outings, his ERA is 6.68 with a 1.48 WHIP, but he had two good starts in that stretch, including one with seven shutout innings on August 18. Hoping for the good version is defensible against lesser lineups, but with the Detroit Tigers in the Bronx against the potent New York Yankees, it's best to avoid the veteran righty."
Another avoid as far as backing the Yankees go as Detroit is 5-1 in this series over the last six games.
This has been a mostly Under series as well.
Astros vs. Blue Jays -
Houston Astros career statistics vs. Jose Berrios are just .229 in 109 at bats that includes just three home runs as the Astros continue to struggle and Blue Jays have won five of their last eight games.
Berríos was pulled after giving up six runs — two earned — in two innings Tuesday against the Reds. He allowed just two runs in his prior start.
Jason Alexander picked up his fourth victory of the season on Thursday night, holding the Orioles to two runs on eight hits over his 5 1/3 innings of work. He allowed two runs in his prior start.
Houston has won seven of the last nine games in this series. Eight of the last ten have resulted in seven or fewer runs scored. The Astros have scored three or fewer runs in six of their last ten.
Nationals vs. Marlins
The Nationals have won seven of their last ten and a few of the top cappers we like are backing them here against a Marlins team that is coming undone, losing 10 of their last 14.
The Nats Jake Irvin allowed seven runs while throwing 3 2/3 ineffective innings in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. He allowed four runs in his prior start.
Washington Nationals career statistics vs. Eury Perez are 11 for 44.
Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (50-43-2)
September 13 - Clemson Tigers vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - Georgia Tech +3 ()
September 12 - Kansas City Royals vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 9 ()
September 11 - Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers - Commanders +3.5 (LOSS)
September 10 - No Picks Today
September 9 - Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (WIN)
September 8 - Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics - Red Sox -160 (WIN)
September 8 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Texas Rangers - Brewers (LOSS)
September 7 - Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets - Steelers -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Illinois vs. Duke - Duke -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Baylor Bears vs. SMU Mustangs - SMU -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Virginia Cavaliers vs. NC State - NC State -2.5 (WIN)
September 5 - Kansas City Chiefs vs. LA Chargers - Chiefs -3 (LOSS)
September 4 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays -160 (WIN)
September 3 - Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8.5 (WIN)
September 2 - Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Athletics -107 (LOSS)
September 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates -165 - Dodgers -165 (LOSS)
September 1 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 9 (LOSS)
August 31 - Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Phillies -161 (LOSS)
August 30 - Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes - Buckeyes PICK'EM (WIN)
August 29 - Auburn Tigers vs. Baylor Bayors - Auburn Tigers -2.5 (WIN)
August 29 - Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 28 - No Picks
August 27 - Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - Under 9 (WIN)
August 26 - No Picks
August 25 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Under 7.5 (WIN)
August 24 - No Picks
August 23 - Iowa State vs. Kansas State - Kansas State -3 (LOSS)
August 21 - Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees - Yankees -142 (LOSS)
August 20 - Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 19 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 17 - No Picks
August 16 - Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -165 (WIN)
August 16 - Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
August 15 - - No Picks
August 14 - Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -103 (WIN)
August 13 - No Picks
August 12 - No Picks
August 11 - San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 7 (WIN)
August 10 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox - Guardians -122 (LOSS)
August 10 - New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 8 (LOSS)
August 9 - Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (WIN)
August 8 - Phillies vs. Rangers - Under 7 (LOSS)
August 8 - Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Reds -118 (LOSS)
August 7 - No Picks
August 6 - No Picks
August 5 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. LA Dodgers - Over 9 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Athletics +112 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 4 - San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (LOSS)
August 3 - New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins - Marlins +103 (WIN)
August 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays +104 (WIN)
August 1 - Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox - Over 8 (LOSS)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Blue Jays +103 (WIN)
July 29 - No Picks
July 28 - Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (LOSS)
July 28 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 27 - No Picks Today
July 26 - No Picks Today
July 25 - LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -102 (LOSS)
July 24 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers - Tigers -130 (LOSS)
July 23 - Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Red Sox +146 (WIN)
July 22 - No Picks Today
July 21 - San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - Giants +118 (LOSS)
July 20 - Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7 (WIN)
July 19 - New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves +112 (LOSS)
July 18 - No Picks Today
July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
July 12 - No Picks Today
July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN)
July 10 - No Picks Today
July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
July 8 - No Picks Today
July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
July 3 - No Picks Today
July 2 - No Picks Today
July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
June 17 - No Picks Today
June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 12 - No Picks Today
June 11 - No Picks Today
June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
