Timeline of the Tigers Demise, Mariners Surging and Today's MLB Betting Analysis

On Monday, odds were sent out for the AL Central, NL Wild Card and the AL MVP courtesy of BetOnline.ag.

Just three short days later and we are witnessing the biggest collapse in the history of Major League Baseball.

Case in point:

• The Guardians were 15.5 games back on July 8^th
• The Guardians were 12.5 games back on August 25th
• The Guardians were 10.5 games back on September 1^st
• The Guardians were 9.5 games back on September 10^th (this equated to a 99.9% chance)
• The largest September comeback in MLB history is 8.5 games by the 1964 Cardinals (it was over the Phillies and my dad still hasn’t gotten over it)
• On September 24^th, the Guardians took a one game lead and also own the tiebreaker
• After starting out 1-3 in September, the Guardians have gone 17-2.
• The Tigers have lost eight straight and 11 of 12. They are 5-15 in September.
• Here’s are notes on how the AL Central Division lines have changed:
  • On July 8^th, Cleveland was a season high 50/1 to win the division.
  • On July 8^th, Detroit was a season high 1/200 (-20000) to win the division.
  • On September 22^nd, Detroit was -150 (2/3) and Cleveland was +120 (6/5)
  • Today, September 25^th, Cleveland is -600 (1/6) and Detroit is +400 (4/1)

While their comeback hasn’t been due to a huge collapse or an epic run, the Blue Jays are now tied with the Yankees for American League East supremacy.

Each team has four games remaining at home and the Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker. And due to that tiebreaker, the Blue Jays have are slight favorites to win the division.

AL Central

Cleveland Guardians -600 (1/6)

Detroit Tigers +400 (4/1)

AL East

New York Yankees +100 (1/1)

Toronto Blue Jays -130 (10/13)

While we’re talking about two hot teams in the Guardians and the Yankees, no one is baseball is hotter than the Seattle Mariners.

After an 0-4 start to September, the M’s are 16-1. Last night, they clinched their first AL West Division title since 2001, which was Ichiro’s rookie season.

The scorching Mariners are now the favorites to represent the American League in the World Series and have passed the Dodgers as the second favorite.

Thursday September 25 

Tigers @ Guardians - 

From ESPN: 

Four of Parker Messick's first six career outings have been quality starts, and the Cleveland Guardians are 4-2 when he takes the hill. On Thursday, Messick will start the biggest game of his fledgling career at home against the Detroit Tigers. The clubs are neck-and-neck in the AL Central heading into the finale of their three-game set. Messick's 2.08 ERA is artificially low, but 31 strikeouts to just five walks in his inaugural 34 2/3 innings is solid. The Tigers hit left-handers well, but Messick's recent success, home-field advantage and the importance of the game land the lefty in streaming territory.

Seven of the last nine in this series have stayed Under. 

Red Sox @ Blue Jays -

The Red Sox have won the last three out of four in this series and control their own destiny to make the playoffs.  Toronto still has something to play for (even after securing their post season spot).  

Brayan Bello lasted only four innings and allowed four runs — three earned — in a loss to the A’s. Bello allowed four runs with four strikeouts over five innings in a loss against the Yankees in his prior start. 

Some of the top cappers we follow are on Boston here. 

But both ESPN and Winners and Whiners are pushing back on Bello and the Red Sox for tonight's game. 

From Winners and Whiners: 

The Blue Jays know Brayan Bello very well. They are 38-for-130 with eight doubles and three home runs against Bello, who’s given up at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts.

Hereof, I expect the Blue Jays’ lineup to break out of its funk. Toronto has accounted for a .600 OPS and 67 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the past 10 days. Facing a familiar face will help, and you should keep your eyes on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer.

Guerrero Jr. is 11-for-27 with four doubles and two home runs against Bello, while Springer is 10-for-28 with a double and a home run versus Boston’s righty. On the other side, Jarren Duran is 5-for-8 with four doubles against Shane Bieber, who’s slowly but surely building up his form.

Wednesday September 24 

These Teams Are Hot Right Now

• Seattle Mariners
• Cleveland Guardians
• Miami Marlins
• New York Yankees
• Atlanta Braves (10-0 but eliminated) 
• Cincinnati Reds 
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Diego Padres

These Teams Should Be Avoided

• Detroit Tigers
• New York Mets 
• San Francisco Giants
• Texas Rangers
• Minnesota Twins
• Washington Nationals
• Chicago White Sox
• Los Angeles Angels

Tigers @ Guardians 

From ESPN: 

A strong case can be made for Jack Flaherty to step up in the crucial matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians. He has pitched well lately with a 2.70 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over his past four games, but only 17 strikeouts in 20 innings with a generous nine walks indicate the veteran has enjoyed a bit of recent good fortune. Even if he pitches well against the Guardians, Flaherty faces the lineup with the league's lowest strikeout rate, tempering fantasy potential. A lot more can go wrong than right in this AL Central encounter.

Cleveland is 17-3 in their last 20 games as Detroit implodes.  Remarkably, the Guardians are yet to clinch a playoff spot as they come into this one tied with Detroit. 

Cleveland is listed at -145. 

Cleveland Guardians career statistics vs. Jack Flaherty are just .189.  

Detroit Tigers career statistics vs. Tanner Bibee are .263 in 133 at bats but with just two homers. 

Flaherty has had issues on the road all season long. Per The Action Network, the Detroit starter holds a 5.20 ERA away from home and has been doing worse in his recent outings, with a 4.71 ERA across his past seven games.

Bibee, on the other hand, has performed much better at home.  

Additionally, the Cleveland bullpen ranks third this season with a 3.50.

The percentage of money coming in was 70% on the Tigers moneyline. 

Top cappers we follow are on Cleveland  -145 and we will be too. 

Tuesday September 23 

Reds @ Pirates

From ESPN: 

Hunter Greene is the unabashed ace of the Cincinnati Reds, but the club would not be in the NL wild-card picture without the second-half exploits of Brady Singer. After a disaster in his first start after the break, Singer was 7-2 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, supported by 62 punchouts to only 17 free passes in 58 2/3 innings. The righty enjoys a favorable home matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the league's least potent offense against a righty on the hill.

The Pirates have just one home run against Singer in 58 at bats. 

The Pirates have won their last two games overall but are 3-12 in their last 15 games. 

From Winners and Whiners:

Cincinnati -150 over Pittsburgh is a sharp play for Tuesday night’s NL Central clash, anchored by a strong home edge and a clear pitching advantage. The Reds send Brady Singer to the mound, who’s quietly put together a solid campaign with a 14–10 record, 3.86 ERA, and 155 strikeouts over 161.2 innings. He’s coming off a quality start against St. Louis and has logged 15 quality starts this season, consistently working deep into games. While Singer’s numbers against Pittsburgh this year are inflated (5.93 ERA in 13.2 innings), the Pirates’ offense ranks dead last in MLB in runs scored, slugging percentage, and home runs—making this a favorable bounce-back spot for the veteran right-hander.

Offensively, Cincinnati holds the edge as well, ranking 14th in total runs scored and 17th in batting average, compared to Pittsburgh’s bottom-tier metrics across the board. The Reds have won 53.6% of games as favorites this season and are 11–10 when favored at similar odds, showing they’ve held serve in spots like this. Johan Oviedo gets the start for Pittsburgh, but with just two decisions on the year and limited innings, he’s unlikely to match Singer’s workload or effectiveness. With playoff urgency and a more complete roster, Cincinnati is well-positioned to control the tempo and cash the moneyline at home.

Some of the top cappers we follow in baseball also like the Reds. 

We will be on the Reds tonight at -168

Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (60-52-2)

September 24 - Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -145 (WIN)
September 23 - Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -168 (LOSS)
September 22 - Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens - Lions +4.5 (WIN)
September 21 - Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns - Browns +7.5 (WIN)
September 21 - Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Commanders - Commanders -3 (WIN)
September 21 - LA Rams vs. Philadlphia Eagles - Eagles -3 (WIN)
September 21 - Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers - Panthers +4.5 (WIN)
September 20 - Maryland Terrapins +10 Wisconsin Badgers - Wisconsin -10 (LOSS)
September 20 - Florida Gators +7.5 Miami - Florida +7.5 (LOSS)
September 20 - SMU Mustangs vs. TCU Horned Frogs - TCU -7 (WIN)
September 19 - Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Rutgers Scarlett Knights - Rutgers +2.5 (LOSS)
September 18 - Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills - Bills -11.5 (LOSS)
September 17 - NO PICKS
September 16 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers - Guardians +122 (WIN)
September 15 - Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
September 15 - Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings - Falcons +3.5 (LOSS) 
September 15 - Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets - Jets +6.5 (LOSS)
September 14 - Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers -3 ()
September 13 - Texas A&M Aggies vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Notre Dame -6.5 (LOSS)
September 13 - Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers - Florida +7.5 (LOSS)
September 13 - Clemson Tigers vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - Georgia Tech +3 (WIN)
September 12 - Kansas City Royals vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 9 (WIN)
September 11 - Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers - Commanders +3.5 (LOSS)
September 10 - No Picks Today
September 9 - Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (WIN)
September 8 - Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics - Red Sox -160 (WIN)
September 8 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Texas Rangers - Brewers (LOSS)
September 7 - Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets - Steelers -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Illinois vs. Duke - Duke -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Baylor Bears vs. SMU Mustangs - SMU -2.5 (LOSS) 
September 6 - Virginia Cavaliers vs. NC State - NC State -2.5 (WIN)
September 5 - Kansas City Chiefs vs. LA Chargers - Chiefs -3 (LOSS)
September 4 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays -160 (WIN)
September 3 - Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8.5 (WIN)
September 2 - Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Athletics -107 (LOSS)
September 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates -165 - Dodgers -165 (LOSS)
September 1 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 9 (LOSS)
August 31 - Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Phillies -161 (LOSS)
August 30 - Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes - Buckeyes PICK'EM (WIN)
August 29 - Auburn Tigers vs. Baylor Bayors - Auburn Tigers -2.5 (WIN)
August 29 - Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 28 - No Picks 
August 27 - Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - Under 9 (WIN)
August 26 - No Picks 
August 25 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Under 7.5 (WIN)
August 24 - No Picks
August 23 - Iowa State vs. Kansas State - Kansas State -3 (LOSS)
August 21 - Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees - Yankees -142 (LOSS)
August 20 - Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 19 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 17 - No Picks 
August 16 - Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -165 (WIN)
August 16 - Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
August 15 - - No Picks 
August 14 - Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -103 (WIN)
August 13 - No Picks 
August 12 - No Picks 
August 11 - San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 7 (WIN)
August 10 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox - Guardians -122 (LOSS)
August 10 - New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 8 (LOSS)
August 9 - Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (WIN)
August 8 - Phillies vs. Rangers - Under 7 (LOSS)
August 8 - Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Reds -118 (LOSS)
August 7 - No Picks
August 6 - No Picks 
August 5 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. LA Dodgers - Over 9 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Athletics +112 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 4 - San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (LOSS)
August 3 - New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins - Marlins +103 (WIN)
August 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays +104 (WIN)
August 1 - Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox - Over 8 (LOSS)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Blue Jays +103 (WIN)
July 29 - No Picks
July 28 - Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (LOSS)
July 28 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 27 - No Picks Today 
July 26 - No Picks Today 
July 25 - LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -102 (LOSS)
July 24 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers - Tigers -130 (LOSS)
July 23 - Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Red Sox +146 (WIN)
July 22 - No Picks Today 
July 21 - San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - Giants +118 (LOSS)
July 20 - Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7 (WIN)
July 19 - New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves +112 (LOSS)
July 18 - No Picks Today
July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
July 12 - No Picks Today
July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN) 
July 10 - No Picks Today 
July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
July 8 - No Picks Today
July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
July 3 - No Picks Today
July 2 - No Picks Today 
July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
June 17 - No Picks Today
June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 12 - No Picks Today
June 11 - No Picks Today
June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com