MLB Betting Analysis - August 31, 2025
Gambling911.com looks at potential value in MLB betting lines and totals based on a number of factors for games played Sunday August 31, 2025.
Saturday August 31
Yankees vs. White Sox -
The line movement scares us a bit here as we've seen the number drop from -190 to -169 at some books with greater than 90% of the moneyline actioin on the Yankees.
New York Yankees career statistics vs. Martin Perez are .230 in 74 at bats with four homers.
From ESPN:
Luis Gil's control has been suspect since debuting in early August, as shown by 17 walks in 24 innings. However, he has limited damage by yielding just one home run this month. The New York Yankees close August with a road date against the Chicago White Sox. Gil faces a lineup with the seventh-lowest walk rate for the past month, so free passes might not be as much of an issue.
The total has come down from 9 to 8.5 even with more than 70% backing the Over.
Angels vs. Astros -
Very lopsided action going Houston's way here yet the line has dropped from -180 to -158, leading one to ponder whether to back the Angels.
Houston Astros career statistics vs. Jose Soriano are .269 in 26 at bats though.
Rangers vs. Athletics
Texas dropped from -151 to -136 even though they were seeing solid action vs. the Athletics.
Texas Rangers career statistics vs. J.T. Ginn have been solid, going .387 (12 for 31 at bats).
Three of the last five games Ginn has started in have seen 9 or fewer runs scored.
Athletics career statistics vs. Jacob deGrom are 11-for-52 hitting (.211).
8 of the last 10 in this series have stayed Under the 9.5.
deGrom allowed two runs on three hits in five innings in a loss to the Angels on Monday and he had a no-decision in his prior start, so expect deGrom to be at his best (at least in theory).
We do like The Action Network's analysis of this game and the Under:
This system targets unders in regular season MLB games where softer home starting pitchers — low strikeout rates and moderate WHIP — are on the mound in games three or four of a series.
By this point in the series, hitters have seen multiple arms and scouting reports are sharper, yet scoring remains muted when the matchup lacks overpowering velocity and winds remain neutral, which appears to be the situation in today's matchup between the Rangers and Athletics.
The setup avoids exaggerated run environments by filtering out strong directional wind influence, keeping offensive surges in check.
With the home team in the middle of the season grind, winning at a modest clip, the market may overlook how often these quiet conditions lead to slower-paced, low-scoring outcomes.
Texas has won eight of their last ten games overall but the A's are 6-4 over this span as well.
The Rangers are scoring a lot of runs of late.
One of the hottest baseball cappers we follow is on the Over here.
Marlins vs. Mets -
Sandy Alcantara delivered another strong performance in a no-decision against the Braves on Tuesday night, striking out seven batters over seven innings of two-run baseball.
He has a 3.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP spanning his last seven starts, with 40 strikeouts over his past 44 innings.
Alcantara has tossed seven innings four times in his previous seven efforts.
We should note the Mets have performed well against right-handed pitchers of late.
Miami Marlins career statistics vs. Kodai Senga are just 3-for-21.
Kodai Senga allowed three runs in four-plus innings Monday against the Phillies.
Only three of the last nine games in this series have stayed Under 8, the current total.
Braves vs. Phillies -
Atlanta Braves career statistics vs. Jesus Luzardo have 3 home runs and 13 RBIs in 113 at bats (.239)
Luzardo surrendered four runs in four-plus innings Tuesday against the Mets. He limited the Marlins to just one run in his prior start.
Hurston Waldrep is 4-0 with an 0.90 ERA coming into this one.
Philadelphia is 5-1 in the last six games of this series. They have won six of their last ten while Atlanta has won just four over that span.
Friday August 29
Cardinals vs. Reds
A little surprised this one hasn't shot up more with over 75% of the action on Cincinnati.
St. Louis has actually dominated this series, going 6-3 over the last nine meetings. They've won half of their last ten games while the Reds have won four of their last ten.
Matthew Liberatore has allowed just one home run in 46 at bats versus these Reds.
Liberatore surrendered four runs in 4 1/3 innings Sunday in a loss to the Rays. He gave up three runs in his prior start, not factoring into the decision.
Braves vs. Phillies
Philadelphia is 6-3 in the last nine games versus Atlanta. Action is heavy on the Phillies with the line moving from -165 to -180. That latter number is our high point in making picks so the value is limited here.
Marlins vs. Mets
This one really stands out as the total went from 8.5 to 7.5 with all the action on the Over.
From ESPN:
Eury Perez snapped out of a mini rut in his last outing, recording a quality start in a win against the Toronto Blue Jays. Next up for the Miami Marlins righty is a road date in Citi Field against the New York Mets. It isn't an ideal matchup since the Mets have been productive facing right-handed pitching, but Perez's ability to limit traffic on the bases and keep the ball in the yard puts him in play.
The Mets selected the contract of RHP Jonah Tong from Triple-A Syracuse and he will be starting for them on Friday.
Half of the last ten in this series have stayed Under the 7.5. There are concerns that the Marlins bullpen may not be entirely well rested. The Marlins gave up 12 and 11 runs, respectively, over a two-day period this past weekend, and the Mets have been scoring runs.
We do like that top handicappers we follow are backing the Under here.
Thursday August 28
Yankees vs. White Sox
From ESPN:
Will Warren's streak of five straight solid efforts was interrupted by the Boston Red Sox in his last outing. He went into the game with a 1.93 ERA and 1.11 ERA over his prior 28 frames. Look for Warren to get back on track when the New York Yankees visit the Chicago White Sox. The South Siders have been more productive lately, but for the season (a more reliable sample), they sport the third-lowest wOBA facing right-handers.
Unfortunately, the price is still steep on New York at -185, slightly above our cutoff point of -180.
Wednesday August 27
Red Sox @ Orioles
We have seen this line drop from Boston -155 to -136 despite as much as 65% of the action on Boston. Some top cappers are on the Oriles.
Baltimore is only winning 40% of their recent games while Boston is 5-1 in their last six games overall, winning the last two against Baltimore.
Baltimore Orioles career statistics vs. Brayan Bello is .229 in 48 at bats with just one homer.
From The Action Network:
The Red Sox offense has cooled off a bit in August. They rank 12th overall in wRC+ for the season, but have fallen to 18th this month with a 98 rating.
Meanwhile, the Orioles are one of the worst run-producing lineups this month, with an 82 wRC+ that has them in the 27th spot.
They will have to go against Boston's Brayan Bello, who holds a 2.75 ERA in his last 15 starts and is coming off a stellar performance versus the Yankees, with seven scoreless innings and only three hits allowed.
They add that, despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
From ESPN:
Brayan Bello's 3.07 ERA is deemed over a run too low via xFIP and SIERA. A pedestrian strikeout rate puts Bello at risk, but he's helped himself by exhibiting above-average command and control. Bello has pitched at least six innings in 14 of his 23 outings, adding to his points league allure. Bello has a tough road date with the Baltimore Orioles on tap, but the Orioles are without three regulars and are auditioning several youngsters, which will help Bello navigate the lineup.
Action was 65% on the Over here.
The total here is 9 and none of the last six games in this series have resulted in runs above this number.
We will be on the Under 9 here
Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (45-34-2)
August 31 - Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Phillies -161 ()
August 30 - Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes - Buckeyes PICK'EM (WIN)
August 29 - Auburn Tigers vs. Baylor Bayors - Auburn Tigers -2.5 (WIN)
August 29 - Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 28 - No Picks
August 27 - Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - Under 9 (WIN)
August 26 - No Picks
August 25 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Under 7.5 (WIN)
August 24 - No Picks
August 23 - Iowa State vs. Kansas State - Kansas State -3 (LOSS)
August 21 - Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees - Yankees -142 (LOSS)
August 20 - Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 19 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 17 - No Picks
August 16 - Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -165 (WIN)
August 16 - Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
August 15 - - No Picks
August 14 - Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -103 (WIN)
August 13 - No Picks
August 12 - No Picks
August 11 - San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 7 (WIN)
August 10 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox - Guardians -122 (LOSS)
August 10 - New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 8 (LOSS)
August 9 - Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (WIN)
August 8 - Phillies vs. Rangers - Under 7 (LOSS)
August 8 - Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Reds -118 (LOSS)
August 7 - No Picks
August 6 - No Picks
August 5 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. LA Dodgers - Over 9 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Athletics +112 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 4 - San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (LOSS)
August 3 - New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins - Marlins +103 (WIN)
August 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays +104 (WIN)
August 1 - Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox - Over 8 (LOSS)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Blue Jays +103 (WIN)
July 29 - No Picks
July 28 - Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (LOSS)
July 28 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 27 - No Picks Today
July 26 - No Picks Today
July 25 - LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -102 (LOSS)
July 24 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers - Tigers -130 (LOSS)
July 23 - Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Red Sox +146 (WIN)
July 22 - No Picks Today
July 21 - San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - Giants +118 (LOSS)
July 20 - Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7 (WIN)
July 19 - New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves +112 (LOSS)
July 18 - No Picks Today
July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
July 12 - No Picks Today
July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN)
July 10 - No Picks Today
July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
July 8 - No Picks Today
July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
July 3 - No Picks Today
July 2 - No Picks Today
July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
June 17 - No Picks Today
June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 12 - No Picks Today
June 11 - No Picks Today
June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
