MLB Betting Analysis - July 28, 2025
Gambling911.com looks at potential value in MLB betting lines and totals based on a number of factors for games played Monday July 28, 2025.
July 28, 2025
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
The Blue Jays vs. Orioles game has mostly been an Over affair in recent meetings. Six of the last seven games ahead of this series between these two clubs have resulted in 9 or more runs being scored.
Chris Bassitt allowed three hits and four runs – three earned – without walking a batter and striking out eight across 7 1/3 innings to earn the victory 8-4 against the Yankees on Wednesday. Bassitt left this game to a massive ovation from the home crowd after pitching into the eighth inning.
He tossed 6 1/3 scoreless innings and got the win in the Blue Jays’ 4-0 victory over the Giants in his prior start. Bassitt gave up 10 hits, walked none and struck out five in that one.
A regression is possible here especially as Ramon Urias is 4-for-8 against him with two RBIs. Ramon Laureano has three RBIs vs. Bassitt in three appearances.
The total for this game was coming in steady at 9.5 with greater than 72% on the Over. Baltimore is actually a -108 favorite.
The handicapping consensus is overwhelmingly on Toronto here. And while the best of the best are backing Toronto, we're more inclined to hone in on the Over here based on the notion that Bassitt will see some regression, the Orioles did have a hot weekend (vs. the lowly Rockies though) and this has been an Over series of late.
When to Pull the Trigger on the Over
Recreational books, in particular, if they move to 10. But any book really. This is an indication that they're trying to get more action on the Under.
Rockies vs. Guardians
The Rockies vs. Guardians series kicks off Monday July 27. Cleveland should be priced too high in each of these games (they were priced at -238 for Monday's game), however, do consider the Over here as the Rockies have allowed four runs in nine of their last ten games overall. In five of their last eight games they've managed to score six or more runs as well.
The total for this game was set at a steady 9 early. DraftKings dipped to 8.5 Monday morning, as did Bovada. That makes us a tad reluctant to support the Over.
Books have only briefly flirted with the 8.5 here. Any prolonged movement and sitting on the 8.5 we'd be less inclined to take the Over
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers
Arizona is a few games below the .500 mark and mostly playing .500 baseball with five wins over their last ten games. Detroit, once the hottest team in Major League Baseball, were losers of their last six games coming into Sunday. They are 1-9 over their last ten games. For the Diamondbacks, this means likely improved value if you happen to be backing Arizona, although the price was just +116 whereas you'd probably have gotten them closer to the +136 number just a few weeks ago. Then again, they have a better chance of winning considering how poorly Detroit has played of late. The D-backs hold a 6–6 record in road interleague games against AL teams.
Cubs vs. Brewers
The number moved off the 8 to 7.5 with around 75% of the action on the Under.
Matthew Boyd is posting an ERA of 2.20, which ranks third in the MLB. Boyd has strong numbers against this Brewers lineup, holding them to a .182 batting average in 33 at-bats, per The Action Network.
Misiorowski tossed 3 2/3 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts in a no-decision against the Mariners on Tuesday. He racked up a career-high 12 strikeouts over six innings of one-run baseball prior to that start.
Let's go with the Under 8 here
July 26, 2025
Hot Cappers
The hottest capper we are following at the moment is on the Red Sox this day.
Dodgers vs. Red Sox (65% on the Over)
Action was mostly even with the Red Sox at -139.
From The Action Network:
Clayton Kershaw has not missed many bats this season, as his strikeout rate is at a career-low 16.2 percent. A majority of that contact has been loud, as his hard-hit rate allowed is in the 16th percentile.
These are not numbers you want to take into a start against the Red Sox, as they have crushed lefties this season. Boston ranks third in wRC+ against lefties and first in BABIP.
Trevor Story is 8 for 23 against Kershaw with three 2B while Alex Bregman has two homers against him in nine appearances.
Kershaw pitched decently in a no-decision against the Brewers on Sunday afternoon, allowing three runs (one earned) on five hits over his 4 1/3 innings of work. He had a quality start, but a loss, in his prior appearance at the mound.
Garrett Crochet earned his 11th win by limiting the Cubs to one run over six innings on Sunday.
Eight of the last ten in this series have gone Over the current total of 8.5.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates (Greater than 70% on the Over)
All books were steady on the 8.5. This series in recent games has featured a total between 7.5 and 9. This one has mostly been an Over series (6-4 Over the 8.5), although last night's game resulted in just one run scored.
Marlins vs. Brewers (85% of action was on Brewers)
The line here moved from -170 to -158. Recreational books were still holding at -170.
Padres vs. Cardinals (70% on the Padres)
Athletics vs. Astros (80% on the Astros)
This one opened at -200 at some books and was still on that number at some recreational books we follow.
Rays vs. Reds (70% on the Reds)
The line on this game has mostly sat between -115 and -123. Recreational books we follow had the line closer to -130.
Braves vs. Rangers (75% on the Over)
DraftKings had been moving between the 8 and 8.5. BetOnline was sitting on the 8.5, as was Bookmaker. Bovada had moved from 8 to 8.5.
Seven of the last eight in this series dating back to 2023 have gone Over the 8.5.
Grant Homes has seen the Braves scoring two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts.
Kumar Rocker’s ERA at home is 1.84 over his last five starts compared to 5.66 on the road. Rocker tossed 6 1/3 scoreless innings with five strikeouts in a win over the Tigers on Saturday.
Holmes allowed three runs in six innings and took the loss against the Yankees on Sunday. He allowed five runs in three innings and got a no-decision in the Braves’ 6-5 victory over the Cardinals in his previous start.
Rockies vs. Orioles (75% on the Over)
There was no movement anywhere off the 9.5.
Nationals vs. Twins (70% on the Over)
The number has moved from 8 to 9, including at recreational books we follow.
The last two in this series stayed well Under the total while the previous three went well Over it.
With Parker allowing two runs with four strikeouts over six innings in a win over the Padres on Saturday, we anticipate potential regression here.
Minnesota has scored 6 or more runs in four of their last ten games overall.
Joe Ryan dominated the Rockies on Sunday, striking out 11 while throwing seven innings of one-run ball. Ryan allowed one run in five innings and got the win in the Twins’ 2-1 victory over the Pirates before that.
From The Action Network:
Game 1 of the series ended in a 1-0 Twins win — a classic low-scoring result that sets up one of the most consistently profitable spots for under bettors: the "Under After Low Scoring Game in Series, Short Term" system.
This model, developed by Evan Abrams, focuses on MLB regular season matchups where both teams are coming off games scoring 0 to 2 runs in the same series. These matchups often feature either strong pitching performances or cold offenses, but the betting market doesn't always adjust the total accordingly — especially in today’s lower-scoring environment.
When the setup aligns like it does here, the under has delivered reliable short-term returns across recent seasons.
On the mound, Mitchell Parker (Nationals) faces Joe Ryan (Twins), two starters capable of quieting opposing bats. Add in a sluggish offensive showing from both clubs in Game 1, and there’s every reason to expect another tight, low-scoring contest.
Parker has been terrible for the Nats and even weaker on the road, with a 6.46 road ERA.
Cubs vs. White Sox (80% on the Over)
While the number has mostly sat at 9, DraftKings has moved between the 9 and 9.5. Recreational books we follow were steady on the 9.
Civale allowed one run (none earned) in six innings and got the win in the White Sox’ 7-2 victory over the Pirates on Sunday. He allowed four runs prior to that.
Six of the last eight in this series have stayed Over the current total.
July 25, 2025
Dodgers vs. Red Sox
Some of the hotter cappers along with the betting public were all over Boston here.
Emmet Sheehan took a loss while working three innings and allowing five runs against the Brewers on Saturday but he did allow just one run with three strikeouts over 4 1/3 innings of relief to earn the win over the Giants.
Brayan Bello yielded three runs in six innings Saturday in a loss to the Cubs but permitted just one run in 6 1/3 innings versus the Rays before that.
Shohei Ohtani is 4-for-8 against him but with zero home runs or RBIs. Andy Pages is 0-for-2 against him.
Boston is averaging 5.37 runs per game at home, second-most in baseball, though Sheehan has allowed only one home run this season.
July 24, 2025
Blue Jays vs. Tigers
Toronto Blue Jays career statistics vs. Reese Olson (Thursday) are just .083 in 38 appearances. They have a single RBI.
Olson pitched well in a no-decision against the Rangers on Friday evening, racking up six strikeouts over five innings of shutout baseball.
Despite pitching well of late, Olson is not picking up the wins. This game offers an excellent opportunity.
Detroit Tigers career statistics vs. Eric Lauer are 13-for-34 (.382). They have two home runs and two RBIs.
Lauer pitched six innings of two-run ball and struck out seven Saturday against the Giants. He allowed just two runs in each of his previous two starts as well.
The public and cappers are all over Toronto here. The line has moved very little and was sitting at just -130 favoring Detroit.
One of the hotter cappers at the moment is backing Detroit here and we are too.
Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (30-22-2)
- July 28 - Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (LOSS)
- July 28 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (WIN)
- July 27 - No Picks Today
- July 26 - No Picks Today
- July 25 - LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -102 (LOSS)
- July 24 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers - Tigers -130 (LOSS)
- July 23 - Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Red Sox +146 (WIN)
- July 22 - No Picks Today
- July 21 - San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - Giants +118 (LOSS)
- July 20 - Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7 (WIN)
- July 19 - New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves +112 (LOSS)
- July 18 - No Picks Today
- July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
- July 12 - No Picks Today
- July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN)
- July 10 - No Picks Today
- July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
- July 8 - No Picks Today
- July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
- July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
- July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
- July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
- July 3 - No Picks Today
- July 2 - No Picks Today
- July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
- June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
- June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
- June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
- June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
- June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
- June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
- June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
- June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
- June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
- June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
- June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
- June 17 - No Picks Today
- June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
- June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
- June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
- June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
- June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
- June 12 - No Picks Today
- June 11 - No Picks Today
- June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
- June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
- June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
- June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
- June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
- June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
- June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
- May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
- May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
- May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
- May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
- May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
- May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
- May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
- May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
- May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
- May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
- April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
- April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
- April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
- April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
- April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
